Back into the Swing of Things

It’s been a couple of months since my last update, and miraculously, the markets are not far off from the highs of early 2025. Secured Retirement’s Market Forecast updates are part of our ongoing market monitoring and an element of our due diligence to our clients. We’re happy to report that the tariff turmoil of April has largely settled and there are some positives to note – namely, the framework agreement on trade between the U.S. and China. While the terms are limited to six months, it’s a step forward. China is also set to resume their shipments of rare earth materials and magnets.

Gross Domestic Product (GDP)

In Q1, we noted that negative GDP numbers were driven by trade imbalances. When you remove government purchases, inventories, and international trade, the data would have been positive. Call it extraordinary circumstances with the massive shift in trade policy.   

In Q2, we’re not booming, even though previous models (like those from the Atlanta Federal Reserve) were tracking above long-term averages. After the June Federal Open Market Committee meeting, caution on future growth is warranted, especially when considering their Summary of Economic Projections downgraded 2025 growth from 1.7% to 1.4%. On the bright side, net federal tariff revenue is almost double the year-to-date amount from last year.

Consumer Confidence

Consumer sentiment jumped to 60.5 in June, up from 52.2 in May. For now, future price increases are not a major concern. The M2 money supply, a measure of the total amount of cash and other liquid assets in the economy, has remained flat since 2022, and overall spending has remained level. Should consumers pay slightly more for certain goods, those costs do even out in other areas. The labor market continues to provide strong support.

Inflation

Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) came in at 2.1% in April, right in line with the Fed’s target. The annual estimate, excluding food and energy, has been raised to 3.1%. It remains unclear how much of the tariff burden will be absorbed by foreign producers versus passed on to consumers. So far, import prices are up 0.8% for the year, but there is not yet an indication of how far they will go. With a decline in the trade-weighted dollar, foreign producers are earning less in their own currencies – another factor to watch.

Outlook for Rate Cuts

The Fed maintained its target range for the federal funds rate. Depending on the source, projections still suggest two rate cuts in 2025, and only one in 2026. The number of committee members leaning toward no easing has increased since spring.

Looking Ahead

While markets have held relatively steady, ongoing shifts in trade policy, inflation dynamics, and Fed decisions will continue to shape the second half of 2025. As always, we’re keeping a close eye on the data and helping clients stay focused on long-term goals. If you have questions about how these developments may affect your own plan, I’m here to help. Give us a call: 952-460-3290.