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Investment Planning

Market & Investments Committee – Meeting Minutes 09/11/25

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As part of Secured Retirement’s ongoing commitment to keeping you informed, we’re sharing key takeaways from our recent Investment Committee discussions and current market insights.

Each month, we meet with our AE Wealth consultants and other third party portfolio experts to review notable economic developments and assess their impact on financial markets.

We will continue to share these updates with you and hope you find them helpful in navigating this ever-changing landscape.

Economic Backdrop

Following signals from earlier this summer, in September the Federal Reserve initiated a modest rate cut. This move was widely anticipated and is aimed at providing support to a cooling job market while balancing inflation pressures.

Policymakers may consider additional cuts before year-end. While this could provide relief for consumers and certain sectors, the long-term impact on inflation and interest rates remains a key area that we are monitoring closely.

Overall, the economic picture remains constructive. Corporate earnings have held up well, and inflation has been gradually moving in a favorable direction. That said, consumer sentiment has softened in recent weeks. This highlights the importance of staying attentive to shifting economic conditions.

Market Environment

Equity markets have shown resilience. There is continued strength across both domestic and international stocks. Within the U.S., market leadership has seen some shifts. Smaller companies are showing momentum in line with well established growth sectors. International markets have also contributed positively, particularly in Asia.

Recent drops in U.S. Treasury yields can be mostly attributed to weaker economic data and growing expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates. Bonds tied to credit risk, such as high-yield and international debt, have held up well. A weaker U.S. dollar has helped boost returns on foreign investments.

Sector performance has been varied. Technology and communication services remain standouts. We’ve also seen gains in more cyclical areas like industrials and financials. This broadening of performance provides greater diversification benefits than we observed earlier in the year.

Committee Positioning

In light of these developments, the Investment Committee made incremental adjustments to portfolios. We’ve slightly increased our exposure to growth-focused investments and extended the maturity of some of our bond holdings. These adjustments aim to take advantage of potential gains and improve diversification, while keeping risk levels in check.

Our approach continues to be focused on long-term growth. We value patience and discipline over reactionary moves in the face of market volatility. This measured strategy is intended to balance opportunity and risk, supporting sustainable portfolio outcomes over time.

Looking Ahead

As we enter the final quarter of the year our outlook is cautiously optimistic. The prospect of additional rate cuts may act as a tailwind, but factors like shifting consumer confidence, global growth trends, and geopolitical risks warrant ongoing attention.

We believe our current portfolio positioning strikes an appropriate balance. We provide exposure to areas of opportunity while guarding against near-term uncertainty. As always, our focus is on aligning investment strategies with your long-term goals and risk tolerance.

If you have questions about how these developments may affect your own plan, we’re here to help. Give us a call: 952-460-3260.

Learning to Embrace Change

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Today, I watched my son grab his football gear and head out the door for practice, just like he has hundreds of times before. But this time feels different. This is his senior year of high school, and suddenly every “routine” moment carries more weight. After football wraps up, he’ll transition into hockey season, then lacrosse in the spring. Each sport marks another milestone in our last year of this familiar rhythm.

It’s hard to believe that in just a few months, we’ll be packing him up and moving him into a dorm. My wife and I have started talking about what life will look like when he’s off at school next fall. Oh my gosh, we’re going to be empty nesters. For the first time in eighteen years, our schedules won’t revolve around someone else’s practices, games, and school events.

The empty nest phase feels like a preview of retirement. Both represent major life transitions where the structure that once defined your days suddenly shifts, leaving you with the incredible opportunity to choose how you want to spend your time.

While we feel a bit sad that this chapter is coming to a close, simultaneously our home is filled with new life. We recently brought home a puppy, and as I watch her discover the world with such enthusiasm, I’m reminded that curiosity and exploration don’t have an expiration date.

Transitions don’t have to be just about what you’re losing. They can also be about what you’re gaining. Retirement is a chance to rediscover parts of yourself that got tucked away during the beautiful chaos of parenting.

With thoughtful planning, the end of an era can also bring new beginnings. There’s no question that your life will change in retirement. But with that change comes new opportunities. How do you want to spend your time? 

Now is the time to plan for the life you want tomorrow. Let’s make the most of your empty nester years by creating a strategic financial plan so you can live the retirement of your dreams.

Ready to get started? Give me a call at 952-460-3290.

Cup of Joe

CUP OF JOE

From Joe Lucey, Founder of Secured Retirement

There’s something about sitting down with a steaming cup of coffee that always kicks my day into high gear. And it’s not just because of the caffeine it sends coursing through my veins.

Throughout my career, some of my biggest revelations have come to me in conversation with my mentor over a cup of joe. Good conversation and personal connection can pick you up in a special way. It’s that feeling that I’m hoping to bring to you with my series, your Cup of Joe.

It’s Time for a Retirement Check-In

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This morning, I was listening to the radio when the disc jockey mentioned that the Minnesota State Fair is only a few weeks out. For me, the fair has always been the “final warning” that summer is coming to an end. Soon, the kids will be back at school, and it won’t be long before I trade in my shorts for a fall jacket. 

While we might still be some weeks off from true fall weather, August in Minnesota means we’re right on the edge of Autumn. This time of year always gets me thinking about change. It’s the perfect opportunity to pause and reflect. Especially when a new season of life might be just around the corner.

Last month I attended a birthday dinner for a good friend. The funny thing about birthdays is that as you get older they become less about celebrating and more about taking inventory. I have a birthday of my own in a few weeks and every year I ask myself the same questions. What went well this year? What didn’t? What do I want to change going forward? 

Evidently, this friend was thinking the same, because a week later he stopped by my office with an unexpected announcement. After years of planning to retire at 65, he’d realized he wanted to semi-retire at 60 instead. He decided he was going to write the book he had always talked about and wanted to get started while he had the time and energy to do so. The problem? His current savings rate was based on having five more years of full income. His new timeline meant he needed to drastically increase his contributions now.

I’ve been in this business long enough to see this happen again and again. Most people create a retirement plan in their 40s or early 50s and set up an investment strategy to go with it. But here’s the thing: you’re not the same person you were five years ago, let alone twenty years ago. Your priorities have shifted. Your health has changed. Your family situation has evolved. Maybe you’ve discovered new passions or realized some of your old dreams don’t excite you anymore.

It’s important to always be reflecting and thinking about the next season of your life. Do you envision your retirement the same this year as you did last year?

Something I want you to remember is that it’s never wrong to change your mind. That’s a part of growing and evolving as a person. But if your retirement planning isn’t evolving with you, you might end up with a plan that funds someone else’s dreams, i.e. the person you used to be.

Maybe you also have a birthday around the corner. Or maybe, like me, the end of summer makes you a bit nostalgic. Either way, now is the perfect time to ask yourself: does my retirement vision still fit who I am today?

Because the best retirement plan isn’t the one you created years ago and never touched. It’s the one that grows and changes with you, season after season and year after year.

Let’s make sure you’re on track for your current retirement vision. Call us today: 952-460-3290.

Cup of Joe

CUP OF JOE

From Joe Lucey, Founder of Secured Retirement

There’s something about sitting down with a steaming cup of coffee that always kicks my day into high gear. And it’s not just because of the caffeine it sends coursing through my veins.

Throughout my career, some of my biggest revelations have come to me in conversation with my mentor over a cup of joe. Good conversation and personal connection can pick you up in a special way. It’s that feeling that I’m hoping to bring to you with my series, your Cup of Joe.

Back into the Swing of Things

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It’s been a couple of months since my last update, and miraculously, the markets are not far off from the highs of early 2025. Secured Retirement’s Market Forecast updates are part of our ongoing market monitoring and an element of our due diligence to our clients. We’re happy to report that the tariff turmoil of April has largely settled and there are some positives to note – namely, the framework agreement on trade between the U.S. and China. While the terms are limited to six months, it’s a step forward. China is also set to resume their shipments of rare earth materials and magnets.

Gross Domestic Product (GDP)

In Q1, we noted that negative GDP numbers were driven by trade imbalances. When you remove government purchases, inventories, and international trade, the data would have been positive. Call it extraordinary circumstances with the massive shift in trade policy.   

In Q2, we’re not booming, even though previous models (like those from the Atlanta Federal Reserve) were tracking above long-term averages. After the June Federal Open Market Committee meeting, caution on future growth is warranted, especially when considering their Summary of Economic Projections downgraded 2025 growth from 1.7% to 1.4%. On the bright side, net federal tariff revenue is almost double the year-to-date amount from last year.

Consumer Confidence

Consumer sentiment jumped to 60.5 in June, up from 52.2 in May. For now, future price increases are not a major concern. The M2 money supply, a measure of the total amount of cash and other liquid assets in the economy, has remained flat since 2022, and overall spending has remained level. Should consumers pay slightly more for certain goods, those costs do even out in other areas. The labor market continues to provide strong support.

Inflation

Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) came in at 2.1% in April, right in line with the Fed’s target. The annual estimate, excluding food and energy, has been raised to 3.1%. It remains unclear how much of the tariff burden will be absorbed by foreign producers versus passed on to consumers. So far, import prices are up 0.8% for the year, but there is not yet an indication of how far they will go. With a decline in the trade-weighted dollar, foreign producers are earning less in their own currencies – another factor to watch.

Outlook for Rate Cuts

The Fed maintained its target range for the federal funds rate. Depending on the source, projections still suggest two rate cuts in 2025, and only one in 2026. The number of committee members leaning toward no easing has increased since spring.

Looking Ahead

While markets have held relatively steady, ongoing shifts in trade policy, inflation dynamics, and Fed decisions will continue to shape the second half of 2025. As always, we’re keeping a close eye on the data and helping clients stay focused on long-term goals. If you have questions about how these developments may affect your own plan, I’m here to help. Give us a call: 952-460-3260.

Jacob McCue

Investment Strategist/Advisor
Secured Retirement

The Biggest Risk to Your Retirement – and How to Protect Yourself

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Now, this isn’t the most fun game to play, but if you had to guess what the biggest risk you’ll face in retirement was, what would you say? Maybe you’d guess healthcare costs or higher taxes. Perhaps you think the biggest risk you’re concerned about is Social Security. 

But none of those are the largest risk you’ll face. The biggest risk to your retirement is called sequence of returns risk – and it can have a devastating impact on your retirement savings.

What Is Sequence of Returns Risk?

So, what is the sequence of returns risk, anyway? Sequence of returns risk refers to the danger of retiring during a stock market downturn. If the stock market is falling during the first few years of your retirement, the combination of stock market losses and the need to withdraw money to pay for retirement could deplete your nest egg. And unfortunately, even if the market eventually recovers, your portfolio may not have time to bounce back.

Without the right strategy, it’s possible you could find yourself selling investments at a loss just to cover your living expenses.

The Challenge of Required Minimum Distributions (RMDs)

Once you reach a certain age, the government requires you to start withdrawing from your tax-deferred retirement accounts. These required minimum distributions (RMDs) force you to sell investments regardless of market conditions. If your portfolio is down when this happens, those losses become locked in, and you lose the opportunity to recover.

One way to minimize the impact of RMDs is to develop a proactive withdrawal strategy before you reach retirement age. Planning ahead can help you avoid unnecessary tax burdens and market-driven losses.

The Problem With Relying on Simple Withdrawal Rules

Many retirees have been told to follow the 4% rule, which suggests withdrawing 4% of their portfolio annually to ensure their savings last. However, this rule doesn’t account for market fluctuations. In years when the market is down, withdrawing at a fixed rate could accelerate the depletion of your funds.

A better approach is to remain flexible with withdrawals. During market downturns, withdrawing less can help your savings last longer, while in strong years, you may be able to withdraw a little more. Having a diversified withdrawal strategy is key to making your money last.

How to Protect Yourself

The good news is that you have more control over your retirement security than you might think. Here are a few strategies to help safeguard your savings:

  1. Rebalance Your Portfolio: Many people set up their retirement investments and then forget about them. Over time, market shifts can create imbalances, increasing your risk exposure. Regularly reviewing and adjusting your investment mix can help ensure you’re prepared for different market conditions.
  2. Consider a Roth Conversion: Unlike traditional IRAs and 401(k)s, Roth accounts allow tax-free withdrawals in retirement and aren’t subject to RMDs. Converting some of your savings to a Roth IRA could provide greater flexibility and reduce the impact of sequence risk.
  3. Diversify Your Income Streams: Relying on a single income source in retirement can be risky. A well-rounded plan might include Social Security, annuities, bond ladders, dividend-paying stocks, and other income-generating assets. The goal is to have multiple sources of reliable cash flow so you’re not entirely dependent on the stock market.
  4. Use Buffer Assets: Holding a cash reserve or other stable assets can help you avoid selling investments at a loss during downturns. Having a few years’ worth of living expenses in safer accounts can give your portfolio time to recover.

Build A Strategy That Prevails

A successful retirement isn’t just about how much you’ve saved—it’s about taking steps to turn your savings into sustainable income. By planning ahead, diversifying your income sources, and staying flexible with withdrawals, you can build a retirement strategy that withstands market fluctuations and gives you the confidence to enjoy your golden years.

Want to ensure your retirement plan is built to last? Let’s talk about how you can secure your financial future today 952-460-3260.

Staying The Course In Uncertain Times

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It goes without saying that the market is constantly fluctuating but changing trade policies and shifting economic data are fueling increased uncertainty. History shows that markets have weathered similar storms before – and even come out stronger. In this update, we break down the latest trade impacts, employment data, inflation trends, and what they all mean for your financial future.

Market Volatility Amid Tariff Uncertainty

Markets took a hit earlier this month as President Donald Trump’s tariffs went into effect – only to be delayed once again. This ongoing uncertainty has led to what’s been called a “tariff tantrum,” reminiscent of the “taper tantrum” in 2013, when markets panicked over the Federal Reserve’s decision to slow quantitative easing. But here’s what you should know: The S&P 500 has gained 4,000 points since 2013. Simply put, markets dislike change, and the past two years have been spectacular with little volatility. We’re now experiencing a correction as investors process trade developments in real time.

Trade Impact on GDP and Key Industries

Exports account for roughly 10% of American Gross Domestic Product (GDP), and recent shifts in trade policy have made a noticeable impact. A rush of imports in December altered the trade balance, contributing to a weaker GDP forecast for the first quarter. Industries such as agriculture and automotive could be hit hardest by tariffs. Too this month, markets reacted over the threat of 50% tariffs on Canadian steel and aluminum – double the previous 25% rate. While this increase didn’t materialize, the uncertainty surrounding trade policy creates volatility. Beyond targeting individual sectors there is heavy retaliation to tariffs imposed by would be trading partners.

Employment Data and Interest Rate Outlook

The latest jobs data also signals potential headwinds. The ADP report showed that only 77,000 new jobs were added in February, significantly below the expected 162,000. The non-farms payroll report was better but still missed the forecast. And unemployment ticked up slightly to 4.1%.

These jobs numbers, weaker GDP,  inflation, and weak consumer sentiment, have led to calls for three to four rate cuts this year instead of one to two. However, once the tariff situation stabilizes and markets regain their footing, the Fed is likely to refocus on inflation and maintain a measured approach to rate cuts. At the Federal Open Market Committee meeting the number of members who believe more than two cuts would be appropriate fell while the number of members who think less than two cuts are appropriate doubled.

Inflation Trends and Consumer Confidence

Inflation data offers a mixed picture. February’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed only a small increase, and over the past 12 months, the CPI has cooled from 3% to 2.8%. Meanwhile, the core inflation reading declined from 3.3% to 3.1%, the lowest since April 2021. While inflation remains elevated, it’s moving in the right direction toward the Fed’s 2% target for now, not knowing how much tariffs will affect companies and the consumer.

Consumer confidence and labor shortages will be key factors to watch in the coming months. Modest improvements in government efficiency, declining interest rates, and lower energy costs will (hopefully) help markets perform better.

Staying the Course in Uncertain Times

With a lack of extended volatility over the last couple of years, a downturn now isn’t completely unexpected. The important thing is to remain patient and ask yourself, “Will markets be lower two or three years from now?” Staying focused on long-term goals and avoiding reactionary decisions will be critical in navigating the current market. If you have questions on your portfolio, don’t hesitate to reach out: 952-460-3260.

Jacob McCue

Investment Strategist/Advisor
Secured Retirement