We’ve Moved! 6121 Excelsior Blvd. St. Louis Park, MN 55416

What Is “Reflation”?

In recent years, inflation in the United States has remained below the Federal Reserve Bank’s target rate of 2 percent, despite the agency’s efforts to jumpstart economic growth with low interest rates. However, the election of Donald Trump infused the markets with the spark they needed. After an initial drop attributed to uncertainty, the stock market responded with outperformance in the weeks following the election results. Part of this response was in anticipation of the Trump administration’s promises for changes in fiscal policy, such as tax cuts and larger investment in the country’s infrastructure — which could involve issuing new debt.

The first phase in a period of economic growth is called “reflation,” which many economists believe we have now entered. Some of the tools the government deploys to activate reflation include lowering taxes and changing the money supply, both of which appear to be on the horizon.

Signs of reflation include higher prices for consumer goods and higher wages to pay for them. With the low unemployment rate, businesses likely will need to increase compensation to compete for qualified candidates. At the same time, the Fed has already raised interest rates and indicated it will continue to do so, which will increase borrowing costs. In turn, those increases could be passed on in the form of higher prices.

Further, higher wages promote consumer spending, which in turn means higher prices, leading to higher corporate profits. This is a crucial circle for the reflationary phase, which eventually leads to inflation. How much inflation the economy can sustain generally is dependent on whether companies can continue to support higher wages via price increases or a slight reduction in profit margins.

Reflation also can impact investors: Rising interest rates cause existing bond prices to drop. New bond issues will feature the new, higher-interest yields, thereby de-valuing older bonds. In this environment, some investors choose to sell their bonds in favor of either higher-yielding bonds or dividend-paying cyclical stocks. These are called “reflation trades”, because they are made with the expectation that inflation will rise.

Remember, it’s important for individuals to focus on their specific financial goals rather than react to the changing economic environment. If you are considering making changes, please consult with your financial advisor to help assess how any changes might impact your long-term goals.


The content provided here is designed to provide general information on the subjects covered. It is not, however, intended to provide specific legal or tax advice.  Contact us at info@securedretirements.com or call us at (952) 460­-3260 to schedule a time to discuss your financial situation and the potential role of investments in your financial strategy.

Share This Article

Get the latest retirement news today!

Subscribe Now

  • This field is for validation purposes and should be left unchanged.

Pick your topic or keywords

Similar Posts

Getting to the Truth: How Strong is Social Security Anyway?

The number one news headline grab this month isn't the Kardashians or Donald Trump. Nor is it Spieth's distressing loss at the Open Championship by…

Continue Reading
Secured Retirement Radio: Probability Investing vs. Safety First

Blog post written by Dale Decker We all have different tolerances for risk. Some people prefer to go big and climb Mount Everest. Others are perfectly…

Continue Reading
Cary Grant’s Retirement Income Checklist

“You never miss the water until the well runs dry.” His Girl Friday (1940) – Walter Burns (Cary Grant) In the 1940’s movie His Girl…

Continue Reading
Ryan Keapproth

Ryan Keapproth

Retirement Planner

Ryan is dedicated to serving clients to achieve their retirement goals. Ryan’s holistic approach centers on wealth management strategies with a focus on income planning throughout retirement. As a Financial Advisor, Ryan is an Investment Adviser Representative (IAR), life and health insurance licensed and a Certified Tax Preparer. Ryan is a graduate of the University of Minnesota, with an Accounting and Finance major.

Ryan is a lifelong Minnesotan originally from Woodbury and currently residing in Bloomington with his wife, Riamae, and their rescue Terrier Beagle mix, Douglas. He and his family are avid travelers in their free time. Ryan enjoys playing golf and poker, and describes himself as a major foodie enjoying new restaurants around the cities whenever possible. He is a sports fan especially when the Vikings and Timberwolves are playing.