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Joe Lucey

Back into the Swing of Things

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It’s been a couple of months since my last update, and miraculously, the markets are not far off from the highs of early 2025. Secured Retirement’s Market Forecast updates are part of our ongoing market monitoring and an element of our due diligence to our clients. We’re happy to report that the tariff turmoil of April has largely settled and there are some positives to note – namely, the framework agreement on trade between the U.S. and China. While the terms are limited to six months, it’s a step forward. China is also set to resume their shipments of rare earth materials and magnets.

Gross Domestic Product (GDP)

In Q1, we noted that negative GDP numbers were driven by trade imbalances. When you remove government purchases, inventories, and international trade, the data would have been positive. Call it extraordinary circumstances with the massive shift in trade policy.   

In Q2, we’re not booming, even though previous models (like those from the Atlanta Federal Reserve) were tracking above long-term averages. After the June Federal Open Market Committee meeting, caution on future growth is warranted, especially when considering their Summary of Economic Projections downgraded 2025 growth from 1.7% to 1.4%. On the bright side, net federal tariff revenue is almost double the year-to-date amount from last year.

Consumer Confidence

Consumer sentiment jumped to 60.5 in June, up from 52.2 in May. For now, future price increases are not a major concern. The M2 money supply, a measure of the total amount of cash and other liquid assets in the economy, has remained flat since 2022, and overall spending has remained level. Should consumers pay slightly more for certain goods, those costs do even out in other areas. The labor market continues to provide strong support.

Inflation

Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) came in at 2.1% in April, right in line with the Fed’s target. The annual estimate, excluding food and energy, has been raised to 3.1%. It remains unclear how much of the tariff burden will be absorbed by foreign producers versus passed on to consumers. So far, import prices are up 0.8% for the year, but there is not yet an indication of how far they will go. With a decline in the trade-weighted dollar, foreign producers are earning less in their own currencies – another factor to watch.

Outlook for Rate Cuts

The Fed maintained its target range for the federal funds rate. Depending on the source, projections still suggest two rate cuts in 2025, and only one in 2026. The number of committee members leaning toward no easing has increased since spring.

Looking Ahead

While markets have held relatively steady, ongoing shifts in trade policy, inflation dynamics, and Fed decisions will continue to shape the second half of 2025. As always, we’re keeping a close eye on the data and helping clients stay focused on long-term goals. If you have questions about how these developments may affect your own plan, I’m here to help. Give us a call: 952-460-3260.

Jacob McCue

Investment Strategist/Advisor
Secured Retirement

What’s Your Tax Plan B?

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There’s something about summer that stirs up that little travel bug within our Minnesotan hearts. Whatever your preference – cabin weekend, road trip, or flight to the coast – ‘tis the season to pack up and go!

Of course, summertime travel around here means one thing: construction. Even a route you’ve traveled a thousand times over may require a detour. Suddenly, traffic’s backed up and you’re searching for another way. 

As any good traveler knows, flexibility is your friend. You adjust. And sometimes, if you’re lucky, you’re onto a better adventure than the one you’d originally planned. Maybe that’s a scenic overpass, the best burger joint in town, or The Biggest Ball of Twine.

It’s always smart to have a Plan B to accompany your Plan A.

The same principle applies to your retirement planning; especially right now, as a new tax bill winds its way through the legislature. While things are still being added and removed, Trump’s proposed legislation would make some significant portions of the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act permanent. Things like the larger standard deduction, lower tax brackets, and higher gift and estate tax exemptions could be here to stay.

For retirees in particular, that could mean some welcome tax relief, especially when it comes to Social Security benefits.

However, as you may have seen this week, negotiations are still underway, and details will change. So, while we’re hopeful about what’s ahead, we just don’t know how next year’s tax situation will shake out. Your finances are going to need a Plan B to accompany your Plan A.

At Secured Retirement, we’re already working with clients to model both possibilities. What if the tax cuts are extended? What if they’re not? What if your taxable income shifts? What if your deductions change? We’ll walk you through each scenario and help you build a plan that holds up either way. 

Tax strategies are about timing, flexibility, and positioning your assets to weather the unknowns.

Let’s make sure you’re set for the road ahead – whatever detours may come. Call us: 952-460-3260.

Cup of Joe

CUP OF JOE

From Joe Lucey, Founder of Secured Retirement

There’s something about sitting down with a steaming cup of coffee that always kicks my day into high gear. And it’s not just because of the caffeine it sends coursing through my veins.

Throughout my career, some of my biggest revelations have come to me in conversation with my mentor over a cup of joe. Good conversation and personal connection can pick you up in a special way. It’s that feeling that I’m hoping to bring to you with my series, your Cup of Joe.

Financial Advice for the Grad in Your Life

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Graduation season is here, and it’s likely you’ve been to (or even hosted) a grad party or two. Whatever your relation to the graduate – parent, grandparent, or close family friend – it’s always a heartwarming moment to watch a young adult finish college. Naturally, it offers us the opportunity to reflect on our own youth, our graduations, and the start of our careers. Grad season reminds us of how far we’ve all come in our journeys.

Post-grad life is a step into the “real” world and while every generation hits the mean streets sooner or later, this year’s grads might face a hard place to launch. High prices, rising interest rates, a shaky job market, and global uncertainty are all working together to make it a difficult atmosphere for new grads to get their footing. More than that, the average public university graduate leaves school with around $33,000 in student loan debt – and often even more.

If starting out financially “underwater” wasn’t enough, many grads will be managing their money on their own for the first time. Suffice to say, it can be an overwhelming financial period in one’s life. While we don’t advise that you barge in and give the grad in your life a real talking-to about all things financial, we do want to offer a few tidbits that you could pass on to a young person entering the world – a little sage advice from financial experts, spoken through a trusted adult on the other side of their career journey. 

Here are a few non-overbearing, actually-helpful things you might thoughtfully convey to the younger generation this grad season.

1. Spend with Purpose

When new grads do eventually land that first post-grad job, their eyes are going to pop when payday comes along! But simply having money doesn’t mean they’ll have the tools to manage it well. Encourage them to envision a realistic budget for themselves that covers their essentials, savings goals, and a little fun. It’s a good opportunity to share any zany or useful money-saving tips you found helpful when you were starting out. It’s important to stay financially grounded as you start to build habits for the future.

2. Save Something – Anything – Now

It’s hard to save when you’re just starting out, but the habit matters more than the amount. If you can develop the reflex of taking a part of a paycheck and putting it in a safe account separate from what you spend out of, that can be really helpful! Suggest that your grad set aside even a small amount each month – maybe even $50 – toward an emergency fund. Having a few months of expenses saved can be a real lifeline if they face a job change, a sudden car repair, or a doctor’s visit.

3. Start Investing – Even If It’s Small

One of the best gifts you can give a new grad is an understanding of compound interest. As boring as it sounds, the earlier they start investing, the more their money can grow – even with minimal contributions.

Workplace retirement plans (like a 401(k)) are a great way to get rolling on investments. Encourage them to simply contribute to the level their employer matches, if offered. If not, helping them open a Roth IRA or traditional IRA now could make a huge difference in a few decades. You might even consider a small financial gift to get their first investment account going and pair it with a little note about long-term financial goals.

4. Protect Their Credit (and Their Future)

Credit cards are not typically taught about in school and they are rarely as straightforward as they seem. Remind your grad that money mistakes involving credit can follow them for years. A missed payment here or a maxed-out credit card there may not seem like much but it can hurt their insurance premiums, ability to rent, and even their employment opportunities, depending on the field, to name just a few. Helping them ask the right questions about credit can guide them in the right direction as they work toward a healthy financial future.

Today’s grads are facing real financial challenges in this market, but with a good head on their shoulders and a few smart moves in their back pocket, they’ll be a-okay. They also have time, energy, and curiosity on their side!

As someone nearing retirement, you’ve likely learned many of these lessons firsthand, either from the guidance of a loved one or from mistakes you made along the way. One of the greatest financial gifts you can offer a new graduate isn’t the check in your congratulations card – it’s perspective.

For more financial advice for all-ages, stay connected with Secured Retirement.

The Power of “To”

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Summer is here. The world is green and the birds are singing! I’m looking forward to getting outside, gathering ‘round the grill, and reconnecting with friends again, as I’m sure many of you are, too.

As we all step into the summer social scene, it’s quite possible that the conversation will turn to retirement – what you’re most dreaming of, what you’re worried about, and how it’s all going to work out. These conversations are natural and the sort of thing we hear all the time at Secured Retirement.

Oftentimes, people are asked what they are retiring from. And that makes sense, it’s polite conversation when you meet someone new – What do you do for work? What was your career like? Questions about how you spend your time.

But what if we flipped the question? What if we asked instead: What are you retiring to? That small shift in language can unlock a big shift in perspective. It’s what I like to call The Power of “To.”

It looks at retirement not as an escape from something but as a window to a new chapter in a beautiful story. Retirement affords a new rhythm to life filled with purpose, curiosity and joy.

So many people spend their years counting all the things they won’t have to do anymore once they retire. And sure, there’s comfort in leaving some things behind. But don’t forget to think about what you want to do more of. Because what comes next should be exciting.

I can help you prepare financially for retirement. But only you can decide how you’ll invest your most precious asset – your time. What will your retired days look like? What is gonna give you purpose and structure your life?

This summer, while you’re kicking back at the lake and daydreaming about retirement, try asking, “What am I retiring to?” instead of just what you’re retiring from.

The answers might just surprise and inspire you!

Cup of Joe

CUP OF JOE

From Joe Lucey, Founder of Secured Retirement

There’s something about sitting down with a steaming cup of coffee that always kicks my day into high gear. And it’s not just because of the caffeine it sends coursing through my veins.

Throughout my career, some of my biggest revelations have come to me in conversation with my mentor over a cup of joe. Good conversation and personal connection can pick you up in a special way. It’s that feeling that I’m hoping to bring to you with my series, your Cup of Joe.

The Financial Consequences of a Long Life

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Just in the past week, a new world’s oldest person has been crowned. Ethel Caterham of the UK is 115 years old and she doesn’t see what the big fuss is about. She attributes her longevity to the fact that she never argues with people and just does what she wants. 

More and more people are reaching these huge birthday milestones. We’re living longer than ever before. Advances in medicine, nutrition, and lifestyle awareness mean many of us will enjoy longer lifespans than our parents or grandparents ever did.

The Pew Research Center reports that the number of people who will live to 100 is expected to grow eightfold over the next 30 years. So, by 2025 there will be more than 3.7 million people over the age of 100 by 2050! That could be exciting or terrifying, depending on your perspective. And it certainly brings to mind some pressing financial questions.

A long and fulfilling life is something most all of us hope for. But a long life also creates an evolving financial situation – especially relative to retirement. As you plan for the long, fulfilling life you still have ahead of you, here are the six expenses to consider:

1. Higher healthcare costs

The longer you live, the more healthcare you’re likely to need – and the more you’ll pay for it. Routine checkups, ongoing prescriptions, unplanned surgeries or medical interventions, it can pile up extremely fast. Medicare does help to cover some costs, but it doesn’t often cover everything. Most retirees still face premiums, copays, deductibles, and potentially large out-of-pocket costs for dental, vision, hearing help, and specialty treatments.

Hold on to your hats while we deliver this news: Medical costs tend to rise faster than inflation. Now, THAT’s a tough pill to swallow. To prevent healthcare costs from quietly chipping away at your retirement savings, start budgeting for cost increases or planned for additional coverage through supplemental insurance or a health savings account.

2. A greater need for long-term care

Living well into your 80s, 90s, or beyond increases the odds that either you or your spouse will need a little extra help with the day-to-day at some point. In the event that you can’t quite talk your children into the arrangement, you’ll likely need to pay for help at home or spend time in an assisted living facility. And those services don’t come cheap.

Costs can vary significantly according to location and level of care, but no matter the specifics, care is expensive – do not underestimate its costs. Many people make the mistake of assuming they’ll never need it or that somehow it will be fully covered. Planning ahead can help ensure that your future care won’t drain your savings or burden your loved ones.

3. More exposure to market volatility

Over a 30-year or more retirement, you’re likely to experience multiple market cycles – and likely some larger downturns. And if you’re relying on investments to generate income, those rough patches do have the potential to do real damage, especially if you’re forced to sell off some assets to cover living expenses.

That’s why it’s so important to not only invest wisely in the first place but to also have a plan to protect your income from timing risk. Diversifying your income sources, building in safeguards, and having a strategy for withdrawing funds during volatile markets can all help preserve your nest egg through the ups and downs.

4. Risk of outliving your money

It’s a simple formula: a longer retirement means you’re drawing from your savings for a longer period. Even with a healthy portfolio, that creates risk – especially if your spending outpaces your investments and other income sources.

If you end up being one of those rumored centenarians (100+ year-olds) that are to proliferate, then you’re looking at a nearly 40-year stretch where you’ll need to pay for housing, food, travel, insurance, and unexpected expenses. If your plan isn’t designed with longevity in mind, you could find yourself scaling back your lifestyle (boo), or even running out of funds altogether.

5. Inflation eats into your buying power

Even modest inflation can significantly erode your purchasing power over time. We shudder to imagine it, but a gallon of milk costing $3 today might well cost $6 or more in 20 years. Groceries, utilities, travel, and services, will add up quickly when you’re spending 2025 dollars in 2055 – and especially on a fixed income.

Planning for inflation doesn’t just mean investing in growth, it means accounting for rising costs in your retirement budget. Failing to do so could result in having to reduce your quality of life down the road just to keep up.

6. Helping loved ones adds pressure

Sometimes, needs beyond your own can affect your retirement. Many retirees find themselves helping adult children with bills, covering grandkids’ education expenses, or supporting their own aging parents. These acts of generosity are done out of love, of course, but they can also strain your financial plan if they weren’t part of it from the start.

It’s not uncommon for people to dip into their retirement accounts to help a family member during a tough time. But without a solid plan, even well-meaning gifts or loans can jeopardize your own security. Finding a balance between helping others and protecting your own future is essential.

You Need A Plan You Can Count On

No one wants to reach their 80s, 90s, or even 100s with plenty of life in them but without the funds to enjoy it. However, you don’t have to leave it to chance.

With the right planning, you can extend your savings, protect yourself from rising costs, prepare for what’s next, and enjoy your dream retirement. That means building a flexible plan that evolves with you. Living longer is a gift! Let’s make sure you’re financially prepared to enjoy it! Give us a call: 952-460-3260.

The Biggest Risk to Your Retirement – and How to Protect Yourself

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Now, this isn’t the most fun game to play, but if you had to guess what the biggest risk you’ll face in retirement was, what would you say? Maybe you’d guess healthcare costs or higher taxes. Perhaps you think the biggest risk you’re concerned about is Social Security. 

But none of those are the largest risk you’ll face. The biggest risk to your retirement is called sequence of returns risk – and it can have a devastating impact on your retirement savings.

What Is Sequence of Returns Risk?

So, what is the sequence of returns risk, anyway? Sequence of returns risk refers to the danger of retiring during a stock market downturn. If the stock market is falling during the first few years of your retirement, the combination of stock market losses and the need to withdraw money to pay for retirement could deplete your nest egg. And unfortunately, even if the market eventually recovers, your portfolio may not have time to bounce back.

Without the right strategy, it’s possible you could find yourself selling investments at a loss just to cover your living expenses.

The Challenge of Required Minimum Distributions (RMDs)

Once you reach a certain age, the government requires you to start withdrawing from your tax-deferred retirement accounts. These required minimum distributions (RMDs) force you to sell investments regardless of market conditions. If your portfolio is down when this happens, those losses become locked in, and you lose the opportunity to recover.

One way to minimize the impact of RMDs is to develop a proactive withdrawal strategy before you reach retirement age. Planning ahead can help you avoid unnecessary tax burdens and market-driven losses.

The Problem With Relying on Simple Withdrawal Rules

Many retirees have been told to follow the 4% rule, which suggests withdrawing 4% of their portfolio annually to ensure their savings last. However, this rule doesn’t account for market fluctuations. In years when the market is down, withdrawing at a fixed rate could accelerate the depletion of your funds.

A better approach is to remain flexible with withdrawals. During market downturns, withdrawing less can help your savings last longer, while in strong years, you may be able to withdraw a little more. Having a diversified withdrawal strategy is key to making your money last.

How to Protect Yourself

The good news is that you have more control over your retirement security than you might think. Here are a few strategies to help safeguard your savings:

  1. Rebalance Your Portfolio: Many people set up their retirement investments and then forget about them. Over time, market shifts can create imbalances, increasing your risk exposure. Regularly reviewing and adjusting your investment mix can help ensure you’re prepared for different market conditions.
  2. Consider a Roth Conversion: Unlike traditional IRAs and 401(k)s, Roth accounts allow tax-free withdrawals in retirement and aren’t subject to RMDs. Converting some of your savings to a Roth IRA could provide greater flexibility and reduce the impact of sequence risk.
  3. Diversify Your Income Streams: Relying on a single income source in retirement can be risky. A well-rounded plan might include Social Security, annuities, bond ladders, dividend-paying stocks, and other income-generating assets. The goal is to have multiple sources of reliable cash flow so you’re not entirely dependent on the stock market.
  4. Use Buffer Assets: Holding a cash reserve or other stable assets can help you avoid selling investments at a loss during downturns. Having a few years’ worth of living expenses in safer accounts can give your portfolio time to recover.

Build A Strategy That Prevails

A successful retirement isn’t just about how much you’ve saved—it’s about taking steps to turn your savings into sustainable income. By planning ahead, diversifying your income sources, and staying flexible with withdrawals, you can build a retirement strategy that withstands market fluctuations and gives you the confidence to enjoy your golden years.

Want to ensure your retirement plan is built to last? Let’s talk about how you can secure your financial future today 952-460-3260.