The Odd Couple

A common theme in movies are the relationships between key characters.  Sometimes these relationships can be challenging as was illustrated numerous times on-screen between Jack Lemmon and Walter Mathau, who happened to be very good friends off-screen.  The two actors are perhaps best known for their clashing roles in “The Odd Couple” and of course local favorite “Grumpy Old Men.”  (The latter of which was meant to be a comedy but may be viewed as a satirical documentary in this part of the country.)  In these movies, there are differences between their characters which were not always complimentary and would at times be adversarial.  The relationships between asset classes can be similar – they may be in contradiction to each other, which is good for diversification, but this does not always happen and we should be aware they can, and do, change over time.    

Conventional wisdom over the past three or four decades has been to hold a mixture of stocks and bonds in your portfolio with the thought being that if stock prices fall, bond prices will rise to cushion the impact.  A quick reminder that the relationship between bond prices and yields is an inverse one; meaning if yields fall, prices go up and vice versa.  Prior to the beginning of this year, bond yields have, for the most part, fallen over the past three or four decades, giving rise to bond prices.  Now that we are faced with the highest levels of inflation in 40 years, we are experiencing a fast rise in bond yields, which we expect to continue for at least the next year.  So far in 2022, we have seen the fallacy of having a portfolio consisting only of stocks and bonds – both have dropped in value.  If you are a retiree drawing upon your investment portfolio, this means you have had to withdraw money when the market is lower, which comes at the expense of future growth, made worse when the loss of compounding is included. 

Historical data indicates that bonds tend not to fluctuate as much as stock prices because interest rates generally do not move very quickly.  This year seems to be an exception as there has been a fast rise in interest rates with the Federal Reserve taking action to fight growing inflation. Most bond portfolios have lost money year-to-date with the widely followed Bloomberg Barclays Aggregate Bond Index being lower by about 7%.  Benchmarks tracking longer duration bonds are down double digits.  So much for bonds being a “safe haven,” especially when you figure in the effects of inflation.    

Confusing Times

Despite positive returns last week for the major stock market indices, marking the first time this year they have had consecutive weeks of positive returns, they remain lower year-to-date.    Energy has performed strongly, but that is an exception as many industries have performed quite poorly.  Had you invested only in energy stocks at the beginning of the year, or sometime during the last half of 2021, you would be doing very well but that lack of diversification is not prudent investment management. When the pandemic hit in 2020 and oil prices dropped to literally zero, most energy stocks lost at least two-thirds of their value.  We’ve recently seen many high-growth technology stocks retreat some 50% or more, and in some cases 75%, from their highs.  Many of these stocks have rebounded slightly over the past two weeks but if you lose 50% of your value, you need to make 100% to get back to break-even so even these rebounds are not nearly enough with many stocks remaining well below their all-time highs.  Further evidence of the importance of diversification between asset classes and sectors.  For the first time in a long time another asset class, commodities, are having their day in the sun, but this may be nearing a tipping point.  Demand may drop if prices rise much further, putting pressure on prices; we most likely have reached an equilibrium point and will see most commodities, such as oil, trade in a range for the time being. 

The stock market seems to be creeping upwards after hitting a bottom, at least in the short-term, on March 14^th.  With inflation now “raging” (a term used by one of the Federal Reserve Governors), interest rates rocketing higher, and the possibility of us being on the precipice of World War III it is rather surprising the most market indices are only down 5%.  Perhaps this is telling us something. The stock market is considered to be a leading indicator and recent moves suggest that things are not that bad and despite world events the economy remains strong.          

Looking Ahead

More than one Federal Reserve Governor, including Chairman Jerome Powell, have publicly acknowledged the Fed is behind the curve fighting inflation and a half-point rate increase is certainly on the table during the next Fed meeting in May.  According to FactSet, bond market futures are giving a half-point rate increase at the next Fed meeting an 85% probability but this should be taken with a small grain of salt since it is known the futures markets can move quickly and are very dependent upon data and events. 

This coming week marks the end of the quarter, one which many investors would like to forget since it has been a rather rough start to the year.  As mentioned above, the market is starting to show some resilience and many times in history the stock markets hit their low points in March and then quickly rebounded eventually ending with positive gains for the year.  2003, 2009, and 2020 come to mind as examples.  Please give us a call if you would like to review your portfolio to make sure you are best positioned for the changing relationships between asset classes.  There are multiple options for keeping your hard-earned money safe while keeping pace with inflation. We would be glad to discuss how these might work for your individual situation.      

Have a great week!

Nathan Zeller, CFA, CFP®

Chief Investment Strategist

Secured Retirement

nzeller@securedretirements.com

Please contact us if you would like to review your individual financial plan or learn how the TaxSmart™ Retirement Program can help you.   

info@securedretirements.com
Office phone # 952-460-3260

Luck of the Irish?

This past week marked St. Patrick’s Day which began as a celebration of one of Ireland’s patron saints, was later carried to the U.S. by Irish immigrants and is now considered to be a celebration of Irish culture.  Shamrocks, leprechauns, and pots of gold are all associated with the celebration and considered to be lucky. Somewhat surprisingly, the saying “Luck of the Irish” originated in the U.S. during the silver and gold rush of the19^th century when a number of the most successful miners were of Irish heritage.  Did the luck of the Irish have something to do with the stock market performance last week?

While we do not want to discount the possibility of having some luck, it is more likely other factors had a greater influence on the markets.  As expected, the Federal Reserve raised the Fed Funds rate by a quarter of a percent; the first interest rate increase since 2018. The markets breathed a sigh of relief since it was not a larger move and enjoyed the best week of the year thus far with the S&P 500 gaining a little more than 6%.  With this move and the accompanying statement, the Fed provided further clarity about their plans to fight inflation.  The markets consider a quarter point rate hike to be rather insignificant and not enough to hinder the market in the short-term.  The Fed signaled plans to continue rate hikes at each of the remaining six meetings of the year.  Conventional wisdom is short-term rates need to be at least 2% for there to be a major impact on the economy.  This threshold could be reached in 2023 if the Fed continues to raise rates; current expectations are they will.  If short-term interest rates were to reach that level, we might experience a slowdown in economic activity but for the time being we expect moderate growth to continue.  In their statement, the Fed cut their estimate of GDP growth from 4% to 2.8% for the year, noting implications from the Ukraine war.  They also raised their outlook for inflation, publicly acknowledging inflation remains elevated and persistent. 

The situation in Ukraine continues to place a certain cloud of uncertainty over the markets and there were news reports of progress being made on the diplomatic front as well as stalled progress by the Russians.  There is even some speculation the Russians will not be able to sustain their invasion much longer and may possibly retreat but that seems like a very optimistic assessment; one we can all hope for should further diplomatic progress fail to yield results.  Despite some progress seemingly being made, the situation remains largely the same so we can assume the market rebound of the past week was mostly driven by the Fed’s action with the Ukraine situation having only a limited impact.

Pots of Gold (and other commodities)

Inflation continues to be a key theme for investors and consumers alike.  The sanctions placed upon Russia continue to impact global supply of certain commodities and raw materials.  Higher raw materials costs will undoubtedly continue to drive prices higher for many of the essential items we need, such as food and energy.  (My wife would argue precious metals, along with diamonds, are also essential.)  Oil was slightly higher on the week, gold and silver were lower, with copper and other industrial metals making moves to the upside.  Agricultural commodities, such as wheat and corn, were mostly flat with some daily volatility following historic increases the previous couple of weeks. Even though the prices of many commodities seemed to have leveled off, they remain at or near historically high levels and therefore are likely to cause continued inflationary pressures.    

Looking Ahead

It seems the anticipation of the first interest rate hike did more harm than the actual rate hike itself, but it generally takes a few months before the full effects are felt in the economy.  With the Fed meeting now behind us, the stock market should again focus on fundamentals such as earnings and growth.  The situation in Ukraine will continue to garner headlines and could lead to some short-term volatility. Increasing numbers of Covid cases in China and Europe have the possibility of causing some alarm but we view that as having limited, if any impact, on the markets since at this point it seems we have moved past the pandemic and its impact is less and less.  Inflation will continue to be at the top of investors’ and consumers’ minds over the next several months, if not years. 

The changing of the seasons brings Spring, which is now upon us and with that, new beginnings.  The biggest question now is whether or not the market bounce we experienced last week will continue and are we seeing a transition? Will there be some Luck of the Irish?  Our assessment is we will see better markets over the next few months, barring an escalation of geopolitical events.  Be sure to give us a call if you would like to review your portfolio.  The recent market volatility has proven to be a bit of a wake-up call for many, so it is important for your income plan to withstand the ups and downs of the stock market. To learn more, please join me for our Market Huddle today, Monday, March 20, at 12pm. Click here to register.

Have a great week!

Nathan Zeller, CFA, CFP®

Chief Investment Strategist

Secured Retirement

nzeller@securedretirements.com

Please contact us if you would like to review your individual financial plan or learn how the TaxSmart™ Retirement Program can help you.   

info@securedretirements.com
Office phone # 952-460-3260

The Old Stuff

In the not-so distant past, Garth Brooks would begin his concerts with a song titled “Old Stuff” with lyrics that included, “…Back when the old stuff was new.”  This was an ode to his early days on the road as a performer before he became well-known.  For many of the families we work with who happen to be at or near retirement, they began their careers a few decades ago.  Do you remember the early days of your career and what has changed?  Obviously, you are older and wiser, plus technology has changed significantly as have many of the comforts of life.  Unfortunately, we seem to be entering a period of time where we are returning to some of the same circumstances of those early years of your adult life – high energy prices, higher inflation, and east vs. west geopolitical strife, not exactly the “good ol’ days” anyone hoped to be reminiscing about.      

Most of the stock market movement over the past week was a result of news related to the situation in Ukraine.  When news came that there was progress on the diplomatic front and it was reported the U.S. was banning all energy imports from Russia, the markets moved higher. Conversely when there was news of no diplomatic progress or continued aggression the markets moved backward.  Overall, the markets were lower for the week with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq both posting their second consecutive losing weeks and the Dow Jones Industrial Average being lower for the fifth straight week, the longest streak since May 2019.  The Nasdaq is now about 18% off its all-time high, set at the beginning of this year, and getting close to bear market territory.  The Dow and S&P are lower on the year by about 9% and 12%, respectively.  The markets experienced their lowest closes of the year last Tuesday before staging a decent rally on Wednesday.  It is worth mentioning the closing lows were not as low as the intra-day lows reached on February 24^th.  The tech-heavy Nasdaq continues to slowly drop and is still much lower than the other major indices.  This provides some indication that attention is turning to interest rates and the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting since higher interest rates have an impact on the present value of future earnings and growth rates, thus affecting the stock prices of growth companies, especially those in the technology sector.

Regarding interest rates, the yield of the U.S. 10-year Treasury bond moved back up above 2.0% last week and shorter-term rates also continued their march higher in anticipation of expected action by the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates at their meeting this upcoming week.  At this time, it is highly expected we will see anywhere from five to seven interest rate hikes from the Fed before the end of this year.  Their action primarily affects short-term rates, but there is also attention on longer term interest rates whose moves are not greatly affected by monetary policy from the Federal Reserve but rather depend more upon market forces, especially demand for U.S. government bonds, as well as expectations for future growth and inflation. 

Higher Prices

Not surprisingly, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) report released last week showed that prices increased by the largest amount in 40 years, with inflation now hovering around 8% over the past 12 months.  This data is already stale and not representative of current conditions since it does not include the recent spikes in food and energy prices, so we expect future readings to be even higher.  Inflationary pressures have been building since supply chain and labor issues erupted during the pandemic, but it was thought these pressures would abate as economic activity returned to pre-pandemic levels.  The conflict in Ukraine is causing further supply issues with various raw materials and commodities, some as a direct result of the conflict itself and others due to the sanctions placed upon Russia to stymie the invasion, which is likely to lead to even greater inflation.  As a side note, there have been news articles about how some companies have been reluctant to pass on price increases to consumers so instead they are offering less product at the same price. An example being Doritos, where there are now fewer chips in a bag. This is being referred to as “shrinkflation.”

 Looking Ahead

The major event of the coming week will be the Federal Reserve meeting where it is highly anticipated they will raise interest rates by one-quarter of a percent. With increasing inflation some economists think they should take more dramatic action but with the geopolitical events occurring they will be reluctant to makes moves which might cause a shock to the economy.  But if we continue to experience high levels of inflation that does not subside, there is a strong possibility the Fed could take more drastic action, in the forms of larger interest rate hikes, to quell inflation before it becomes out of control.  Hopefully they do not have to resort to such measures as it could be somewhat damaging to the economy on a short-term basis, even though it might be necessary. Please join me online next Monday, March 21 at 12pm, as I host our Market Huddle to recap the Federal Reserve Report. Click here to register.

Day-to-day market movement will continue to be impacted by events in Ukraine, but it seems at this point the path of least resistance would be to the upside.  Should there be a retreat by Russian forces or some sort of lasting ceasefire it is a good bet stock markets will react very positively.  Absent a truly horrific event, the worst news is most likely priced into the U.S. markets.  There is fear that there could be some contagion in the markets should European banks face difficulty, which they might since many have exposure to Russia.  The real estate situation in China which reared its ugly head last fall has taken a back seat to events in Eastern Europe but still exists.  There is limited exposure to these risks here in the U.S. so for the time being all seems manageable despite much of the rest of the world seemingly crumbling around us.  Let us all hope brighter days are ahead for everyone.  

Give us a call if you would like to review your portfolio. With rising interest rates and inflation, we have not seen the likes of since the “good ol’ days” of 40 years ago. This is a very different market than it has been for the past couple of decades so it is imperative you are positioned accordingly to maintain peace of mind in your well-deserved retirement years. 

Have a great week!

Nathan Zeller, CFA, CFP®

Chief Investment Strategist

Secured Retirement

nzeller@securedretirements.com

Please contact us if you would like to review your individual financial plan or learn how the TaxSmart™ Retirement Program can help you.   

info@securedretirements.com
Office phone # 952-460-3260

It’s A Whole New World

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine last week marks the largest land invasion and European conflict since World War II so there is no wonder it was viewed with angst worldwide.  Our thoughts are certainly with the people of Ukraine as they fight to maintain their sovereignty and independence in what is undoubtedly a very difficult time.  This troubling news is leading headlines around the world, and it is important to monitor this situation since the outcome and any further action may have considerable implications for world order and peace.  But for now, here in the U.S. the impact is limited and there are other issues more likely to drive markets which investors should focus on, such as corporate earnings, inflation, and higher interest rates. 

Global stock markets dropped dramatically last Thursday morning upon news of the invasion.  Commodities prices, especially oil, moved much higher and there was a flight to safety with money going into “safe-haven” investments such as U.S. Treasury bonds and gold.  However, the dramatic pullback was relatively short-lived, at least domestically, as the major indices clawed their way back and all ended higher on the day.  On Friday the markets had their single best day since late 2020 on optimism for diplomatic talks.  But despite the gains late in the week, the markets still ended the week slightly lower.  The quick reversal and strong follow-through may seem somewhat puzzling given the severity of this crisis.  There are a few theories as to why there was such a dramatic rebound, with the most common being the markets were already oversold with both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq closing in correction territory on Wednesday.  Also, the odds of a half-point rate hike by the Federal Reserve at their upcoming meeting fell dramatically after news of the invasion broke and it is now highly expected the Fed will only raise rates by one-quarter point.  This is viewed very favorably by the markets since higher interest rates are thought to be a hindrance on future growth. 

Should we be worried?

Historically speaking, volatile geopolitical events have only caused short-lived volatility in the stock market.  Going back to the Israeli Arab War and Oil Embargo in 1973, the average market selloff from a geopolitical event is 12 days with an average drop of 6.5%.  Depending upon what occurs in coming days, in terms of global stock markets the worst may already be behind us.  What is perhaps of largest worry is what happens with energy prices.  Russia is the world’s No. 3 exporter of oil and the No. 2 exporter of natural gas and supplies about 50% of the energy consumed in Europe.  Since Western countries are imposing sanctions, one of Russia’s countermoves might be to retaliate by cutting fuel sales. Also worth noting is that Ukraine is often considered to be the “breadbasket of Europe” since it supplies wheat, corn, and sunflower oil to much of Europe, the Middle East and Northern Africa.  Agricultural production may not be affected but the ports used to ship these goods are currently closed.  The greatest threat from the invasion may not be a prolonged market downturn but rather elevated inflationary pressures from higher energy and food prices. 

Looking Ahead

At this time the U.S. is not directly involved in this conflict but there is some concern we would be pulled into it should Russia continue their aggression and attack a NATO country, which could lead to another World War.  Hopefully cooler heads will prevail and there will be peace.  The Ukrainian people have shown great resilience with many taking up arms to defend their homeland against the unprovoked hostility.  It seems most of the world is on their side in hoping they succeed.  In the meantime, life continues for the rest of us and from a market perspective the focus remains on those issues which have the prospect of causing greater impact for investors and savers. 

The heightened volatility and market pullbacks experienced thus far in 2022 demonstrate the importance of having a solid income plan supported by “safe money” and not being beholden to stock market movement.  This is also a reminder of why money invested in the market is intended for long-term capital appreciation with a time horizon measured in years, if not decades, rather than a few weeks or months.  This might be a good time to consider non-traditional investment strategies which can provide growth while reducing downside risk.  We believe better days are ahead but if you have concerns about market volatility and world events, we welcome the opportunity to have a conversation with you to review your portfolio and income plan to ensure you feel secure in your retirement. 

Have a good week!

Nathan Zeller, CFA, CFP®

Chief Investment Strategist

Secured Retirement

nzeller@securedretirements.com

Please contact us if you would like to review your individual financial plan or learn how the TaxSmart™ Retirement Program can help you.   

Stay Calm and Carry On

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine last week marks the largest land invasion and European conflict since World War II so there is no wonder it was viewed with angst worldwide.  Our thoughts are certainly with the people of Ukraine as they fight to maintain their sovereignty and independence in what is undoubtedly a very difficult time.  This troubling news is leading headlines around the world, and it is important to monitor this situation since the outcome and any further action may have considerable implications for world order and peace.  But for now, here in the U.S. the impact is limited and there are other issues more likely to drive markets which investors should focus on, such as corporate earnings, inflation, and higher interest rates. 

Global stock markets dropped dramatically last Thursday morning upon news of the invasion.  Commodities prices, especially oil, moved much higher and there was a flight to safety with money going into “safe-haven” investments such as U.S. Treasury bonds and gold.  However, the dramatic pullback was relatively short-lived, at least domestically, as the major indices clawed their way back and all ended higher on the day.  On Friday the markets had their single best day since late 2020 on optimism for diplomatic talks.  But despite the gains late in the week, the markets still ended the week slightly lower.  The quick reversal and strong follow-through may seem somewhat puzzling given the severity of this crisis.  There are a few theories as to why there was such a dramatic rebound, with the most common being the markets were already oversold with both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq closing in correction territory on Wednesday.  Also, the odds of a half-point rate hike by the Federal Reserve at their upcoming meeting fell dramatically after news of the invasion broke and it is now highly expected the Fed will only raise rates by one-quarter point.  This is viewed very favorably by the markets since higher interest rates are thought to be a hindrance on future growth. 

Should we be worried?

Historically speaking, volatile geopolitical events have only caused short-lived volatility in the stock market.  Going back to the Israeli Arab War and Oil Embargo in 1973, the average market selloff from a geopolitical event is 12 days with an average drop of 6.5%.  Depending upon what occurs in coming days, in terms of global stock markets the worst may already be behind us.  What is perhaps of largest worry is what happens with energy prices.  Russia is the world’s No. 3 exporter of oil and the No. 2 exporter of natural gas and supplies about 50% of the energy consumed in Europe.  Since Western countries are imposing sanctions, one of Russia’s countermoves might be to retaliate by cutting fuel sales. Also worth noting is that Ukraine is often considered to be the “breadbasket of Europe” since it supplies wheat, corn, and sunflower oil to much of Europe, the Middle East and Northern Africa.  Agricultural production may not be affected but the ports used to ship these goods are currently closed.  The greatest threat from the invasion may not be a prolonged market downturn but rather elevated inflationary pressures from higher energy and food prices. 

Looking Ahead

At this time the U.S. is not directly involved in this conflict but there is some concern we would be pulled into it should Russia continue their aggression and attack a NATO country, which could lead to another World War.  Hopefully cooler heads will prevail and there will be peace.  The Ukrainian people have shown great resilience with many taking up arms to defend their homeland against the unprovoked hostility.  It seems most of the world is on their side in hoping they succeed.  In the meantime, life continues for the rest of us and from a market perspective the focus remains on those issues which have the prospect of causing greater impact for investors and savers. 

The heightened volatility and market pullbacks experienced thus far in 2022 demonstrate the importance of having a solid income plan supported by “safe money” and not being beholden to stock market movement.  This is also a reminder of why money invested in the market is intended for long-term capital appreciation with a time horizon measured in years, if not decades, rather than a few weeks or months.  This might be a good time to consider non-traditional investment strategies which can provide growth while reducing downside risk.  We believe better days are ahead but if you have concerns about market volatility and world events, we welcome the opportunity to have a conversation with you to review your portfolio and income plan to ensure you feel secure in your retirement. 

Have a good week!

Nathan Zeller, CFA, CFP®

Chief Investment Strategist

Secured Retirement

nzeller@securedretirements.com

Please contact us if you would like to review your individual financial plan or learn how the TaxSmart™ Retirement Program can help you.