Tax Planning

LSD

The world’s oldest marathon and one of the world’s best-known road racing events, the Boston Marathon, was held last week.  For dedicated runners it is often considered the apex of a running career as those who enter the race need to first qualify, which often takes years of dedicated training and practice.  As with any sport, runners have different types of training regiments to build stamina, endurance, and speed.  These include tempo (or fast) runs, interval runs and of course long, slow distance runs, commonly known as LSD for short; not to be confused with the psychedelic drug used by the counterculture movement of the 1960s.  Investing, especially for retirement, is very similar to long endurance races – they are not a short sprint and require stamina and patience to be successful. 

The most widely anticipated recession in history has yet to occur, so should investors be nervous?  Is it building to be bigger than expected or were we able to avoid disaster?  If you are a long-term investor, you should not be overly concerned either way.  Money invested in the stock market should be able to withstand short-term volatility and only intended to be used several years down the road – generally over the duration of an entire market cycle which tend to last at least 5-7 years. 

Investors often want to know what the market is going to do over the next 3-6 months and then try to time it, but patience is warranted. Perhaps it was best said by legendary investor Warren Buffett, who stated “I never attempt to make money on the stock market.  I buy on the assumption that they could close the market the next day and not reopen it for five years.” The point he was making is that he has found success by owning high quality stocks that perform well over longer periods of time and does not worry about short-term fluctuations. 

Fartlek

Fartlek, a funny name which comes from Sweden and means “speed play,” is a runner’s training approach whereby long slow distance, or steady-state running, and higher speed training is blended together at various intervals.  More simply, it involves alternating periods of fast and slow running.  The markets tend to behave in this manner quite frequently.  There are times when the market is very volatile and moves up or down quite quickly, while other times it tends to be calmer and move little.  Last week would fit into the latter; it was a fairly quiet and calm week in the markets despite earnings season fully kicking into gear. 

The major U.S. average were slightly lower as the S&P 500 changed by less than 1% for a third-straight week, the longest stretch since August of 2021.  Treasury bond yields did move slightly higher but the magnitude of the moves was much less than recent weeks.  Earnings reports showed cautious guidance and profit margins hit by recent price cuts, but they also reflected resilient consumer spending.  Thus far, earnings have come in about as expected with few big surprises, but still show some contraction from a year ago. 

As has recently been the case, there continues to be arguments for both bullish and bearish narratives in the markets.  The Fed overhang remains the key downside risk, with officials continuing to message “higher for longer” policy given persistent inflation.  The recent release of the Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) data indicates manufacturing and employment are increasing faster than expected, but so are prices, leading to little reprieve on the inflation front. 

Earnings growth is expected to grow in the third quarter as companies step up their cost-cutting and efficiency initiatives, however risk remains to estimates from margin contraction and wage pressures.  Also on the bearish front, money supply growth is collapsing with tightening in the money supply for six straight months.  The post-pandemic money supply expansion from the Federal Reserve’s Quantitative Easing (QE) program and near zero interest rates helped fuel the fast recovery but also were major contributors to the highest levels of inflation in four decades.  A contraction in money supply should help stymie inflation but will also hinder economic growth. 

Looking Ahead

Economic data to be released this week includes Consumer Confidence, first quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP), and Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE). GDP is expected to show expansion, so no recession (yet).  The PCE price deflator is the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation and is expected to remain above 4%, which is still outside the Fed’s comfort zone and therefore will provide them with further validation to raise interest rates another quarter point at their upcoming meeting on May 2-3.  As of now, the markets are expecting this to be the last rate hike in this cycle with the possibility of at least one rate cuts by the end of the year.  However, the Fed continues to be at odds with these expectations and officials have insisted they will maintain interest rates higher and longer in their fight against inflation. 

Big tech earnings will receive the most attention this week with Alphabet (Google), Microsoft, META (Facebook) and Amazon all reporting.  This group has significantly outperformed the broader market so far this year, but analysts have noted their valuations are high with some of the best-case scenarios priced into shares.  But it is worth remembering these are some of the names that could be among the better performers in an economic slowdown given strong cash generation and falling interest rates. 

While we wait for a recession that may, or may not, ever happen it is important to remember the economy and stock market are not one in the same. It is more important to focus on the stock market as a long-term proposition where patience is required. Investing in the markets should be viewed as a marathon and not a sprint.  There are often times the market is volatile and prices fluctuate wildly in the short-term, but keep your eye on the long term to match your time horizon with your goals.  Do not hesitate to call us if you would like to discuss your portfolio and the strategies we can help you implement for long-term success throughout retirement. 

Have a wonderful week!

Nathan Zeller, CFA, CFP®

Chief Investment Strategist
Secured Retirement
nzeller@securedretirements.com

Please contact us if you would like to review your individual financial plan or learn how the TaxSmart™ Retirement Program can help you.   

info@securedretirements.com
Office phone # 952-460-3260

Spring Thaw?

Here in the Upper Midwest temperatures were at or near record highs, in some cases near 90 degrees.  While it did give us an early taste of summer, it also seemed surreal as some of the piles of snow that accumulated after a winter of abnormally high snowfall remained. The multiple warm days quickly melted the snow and while the calendar tells us we are now in the midst of spring, and summer is right around the corner, over the weekend Mother Nature did provide another shot of snow to remind us we are not completely over winter yet.  With rather strong gains in the both the stock and bond markets so far in 2023 and inflation seemingly dissipating, are we finally thawing from the market “winter” of 2022?

Despite pulling back on Friday after disappointing retail sales data, the markets did manage to show gains last week with the Dow Jones Industrial Average jumping 1.2% and being higher for a fourth consecutive week while the S&P 500 gained 0.8% and the Nasdaq added 0.3%.  Initial quarterly earnings reports on Friday did come in better than expected, most notably the largest U.S. banks.  Inflation showed signs of moderating in March with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) climbing 5% compared to a year ago, slowing from the 6% annual page seen in February.  However, core CPI, which excludes food and energy, rose 5.6% year-over-year, higher than the 5.5% reported the previous month.

Inflation is showing signs of moderating but remains above the Federal Reserve’s comfort level and odds are increasing the Fed will raise rates another quarter point at their next meeting the first week in May, only two short weeks away.  The question now is whether inflation, which is a measure of price changes from the previous year, will continue to fall or remain at elevated levels.  Looking deeper into the components of the inflation measure, housing costs are moderating with the cost of rent leveling off, but energy costs are on the rise.  It is too early for the Fed to declare victory in their fight against inflation, but progress has been made.  As of now, it appears an interest rate hike in May is likely to be the finale to an aggressive hiking cycle that has rocked markets for much of the past year.  At a minimum it seems the Fed will pause after the next meeting to fully assess economic conditions and give previous monetary tightening action a chance to fully work through the system.

April Showers

The stock market is generally affected most by two factors – interest rates and earnings.  With the current interest rate hiking cycle possibly nearing its end, the focus is likely to shift to corporate profitability.  Analysts are currently expecting aggregate earnings of the S&P 500 to drop roughly 6% from the first quarter of last year.  If this comes to pass, it would be the second straight quarterly decline in year-over-year earnings growth, the first such “earnings recession” since the pandemic.  But shrinking earnings may not be a tragedy and in fact might be a sign of cooling inflation. Current expectations are that corporate earnings will be pressured by shrinking profit margins and not by a drop in top-line sales.  As a matter of fact, most companies are reporting continued growth in sales.  During 2021-2022 when inflation was taking off, companies were able to raise prices with ease, resulting in record high profits.  As price increases have slowed, companies have had a more difficult time passing along price increases to consumers, meaning profit margins are being squeezed. 

Even at the “earnings recession” levels predicted by analysts, earnings per share would still be noticeably greater than any quarter in the pre-pandemic era.  However, big surprise losses, or profits, that trounce expectations can affect individual stock prices and set the mood for the markets.  Analyst expectations are frequently, and almost always, too pessimistic since their estimates are driven by conversations with corporate executives who typically like to underpromise on earnings and then over-deliver with a better-than-expected number, generating a nice pop in the share price. 

Looking Ahead

Earnings season picks up serious steam this week with a host of bank earnings, in particular the beleaguered regional banks. On the economic front, housing data will be the focal point a week after inflation and retail sales took center stage.  Housing index data, housing starts, and existing home sales, coupled with mortgage rate and application data will offer a picture of the housing market amid a rising rate environment. 

Much like a late spring snowstorm, returns in the market this year have been a bit of a surprise.  But unlike a snowstorm, the positive movement has been welcomed.  Many analysts and investors have remained cautious since a widely anticipated recession still seems to loom on the horizon.  However, the “impending” recession continues to be pushed back further into the future, leaving many to wonder if it will indeed occur.  Even the most pessimistic analysts seem to be changing their tone a bit, becoming a little more sanguine.  Earlier predictions about a significant drop in the stock market have not (yet) played out and with passing time it is may be less likely.  The market has been trading in a range over the past 12 months, but those people sitting on the sidelines have missed out on potential gains in certain sectors and asset classes, another reminder how “time in the market” tends to trump “timing the market.” 

If the Fed is indeed near the end of the interest rate hiking cycle, the peak in interest rates may already be behind us.  For fixed income investors thinking they will remain on the sidelines and wait for higher interest rates, it might be advisable to consider acting sooner rather than later. Yields on shorter duration fixed income instruments remains much greater than longer duration yields but if we see rates continue to fall this could quickly change and it would be advisable to lock in higher rates now.

As we transition into the warmer months, be sure your portfolio is also adapting to changes in the market.  Don’t let a surprise snowstorm catch you off-guard and also don’t miss the sunny, warm days when markets are good.  If you would like to review your portfolio to discuss options to protect yourself while ensuring you do not miss out on better markets do not hesitate to contact us to discuss strategies to help you remain secure throughout your retirement.   

Have a wonderful week!

Nathan Zeller, CFA, CFP®

Chief Investment Strategist
Secured Retirement
nzeller@securedretirements.com

Please contact us if you would like to review your individual financial plan or learn how the TaxSmart™ Retirement Program can help you.   

info@securedretirements.com
Office phone # 952-460-3260

Coming Out of Hibernation

One adaptation that has evolved in some mammals is hibernation, which is a state of dormancy that allows animals to avoid periods of famine, such as over the winter when food is scarce. As the weather warms up here in the Upper Midwest and we are able to be outdoors more, we ourselves might feel as if we are coming out of our own hibernation.  Bears are especially known to be animals that hibernate.  We experienced bear markets in 2022, but 2023 is off to a much better start. Are the bears going to return to hibernation and are the bulls finally taking charge?

The gains in the stock market year-to-date (YTD) have been driven primarily by the Technology and Communications Services sectors.  It is the companies in these sectors that are also driving the strong YTD performance of the Nasdaq, but still not enough to bring it out of its bear market as it remains some 25% off its all-time high.  The forward price-to-earnings ratio of the tech sector remains elevated above long-term averages, but not yet reaching levels seen in 2020-2021, implying that either earnings need to improve or stock prices need to fall for prices to be more in-line with the historical norm.  There is no rule stating stocks must trade at a particular P/E ratio, but the sector again looks expensive, and we would remain cautious in this area until we see confirmation earnings are improving. 

Last week the S&P 500 and Nasdaq finishing slightly lower after three weeks of gains.  Concerns about growth moved back to the forefront during the holiday-shortened week amid a steady stream of weaker-than-expected economic reports.  While these seemingly firmed expectations for the Federal Reserve to pause its interest rate hikes at their next meeting in early May, at the same time they provided additional fuel for hard-landing and recessionary concerns.  Following recent stress in the banking sector, there have also been signs of weaker loan demand and tighter credit terms, which also are adding to the shift in sentiment. 

Despite those events, there are also advocates for a more bullish view.  Bank-crisis headlines appear to have stabilized and there are presently no indications of further contagion, but that does not mean we are out of the woods yet. The coming earnings season remains a big focus given expectations for a notable year-over-year drop in S&P earnings amid a softer economic backdrop and pressure from wage growth.  There is also a sense the bar for this earnings season has already been lowered. 

Goldilocks and the 3 Bears

Most everyone is familiar with the fairy tale “Goldilocks and the Three Bears” where a young girl, Goldilocks, enters the home of three bears, sits in their chairs, eats their porridge and sleeps in their beds. She tries the porridge of each, with the first being too hot, the second being too cold and the third being just right.

Last week’s jobs report could be considered a “Goldilocks” scenario that is “just right.”  Employers are adding jobs at a healthy, but more moderate pace. New workers are reentering the labor force, helping meet the demand for staff, resulting in wage gains normalizing.  If this is sustained in coming months this could lead to a not-too-hot or not-too-cold healthy labor market with steady job growth and low inflation.  The Fed has been looking for the labor force to come back into balance, helping subdue wage growth and inflationary pressure. 

After the employment reports were released, Treasury yields rose sharply, reflecting a sense that the continued robust job market implies tighter money supply. Stated another way, the jobs report provided further room for the Fed to continue raising interest rates and a rate hike in May now has a higher probability of occurring.  But we will caution many data points will be released prior to the next Fed meeting, including key inflation reports this coming week.  The central bank will be reluctant to back off its campaign to raise interest rates until there is clear evidence inflation is cooling significantly.

Looking Ahead

First quarter earnings season will get underway this week with big banks reporting results on Friday.  Investors are likely to turn their attention slightly away from Fed policy and towards the state of profitability in corporate America.  However, the most anticipated event of the week will be the latest inflation reading from the Consumer Price Index (CPI) on Wednesday, followed by the Producer Price Index (PPI) on Thursday.  CPI is expected to show prices being 5.2% higher than a year ago, a slowing in inflation from the 6% reported last month, but still much higher than the Fed’s 2% target.  The week wraps up with the monthly retail sales report on Friday, which will show the health of consumer spending. 

Current market expectations indicate about a 50/50 split in chances for a quarter point rate hike by the Fed in May, with odds of a hike increasing after last week’s jobs reports but very much subject to change as mentioned earlier.  Looking out further, markets are pricing in a pause at the June meeting with a quarter point drop in July.  Our thoughts are the market is not pricing probabilities correctly and absent a major unanticipated event, we highly doubt the Fed would raise rates and then begin to lower a few short months later. Not since the early 1980’s has the Fed not held rates at their peak for less than 6 months, often holding them for up to a year, before cutting.  And looking back to the early 1980’s when there were large swings in interest rate moves by the Fed, they made policy errors by not holding rates high enough for long enough, allowing inflation to quickly grow. The current Fed is aware of this past precedent and it is unlikely they will want to repeat the same type of errors. 

When bears hibernate, they store up enough food and liquid in their bodies to survive the long winter.  Their physiology and metabolism shift in rathe incredible ways to help them survive.  Investors should prepare themselves in much the same way when it comes to bear markets – by having an income stream available so they do not need to rely on their investments when markets are lower.  If you are concerned about what a bear market could impact your retirement, contact us to discuss strategies to help you remain feeling secure.     

Have a wonderful week!

Nathan Zeller, CFA, CFP®

Chief Investment Strategist
Secured Retirement
nzeller@securedretirements.com

Please contact us if you would like to review your individual financial plan or learn how the TaxSmart™ Retirement Program can help you.   

info@securedretirements.com
Office phone # 952-460-3260

April Fools’

April Fools’ Day is an annual custom consisting of practical jokes and hoaxes.  The origins of this April 1^st tradition are unknown, but several theories exist. One such association comes from Middle English poet Geoffrey Chaucer’s The Canterbury Tales, where in the “Nun Priest’s Tale” the protagonist, Chauntecleer, a rooster, is tricked by a cunning fox on April 1. Markets have enjoyed a decent rebound in 2023 after a difficult 2022, but is this sustainable or are we being tricked into a false sense of optimism as we enter April?

Equities were mostly higher in the first quarter, with the Nasdaq being the standout, enjoying its biggest rally since the second quarter of 2020.  The S&P 500 gained for the second straight quarter.  Bonds, especially Treasuries, were also stronger with yields falling in March.  The strong start to the year is being attributed to positive macro-economic momentum and expectations for a soft landing in the economy.  The Federal Reserve slowed the pace of rate hikes in the face of moderating, yet persistently elevated, inflation.  However, the Fed also has signaled that further work needs to be done in the fight against inflation and they will not stop until it is near 2% on an annual basis.  Labor markets continue to show strength and retail data sales data indicates consumers are willing to continue spending money. 

Overhangs remain in the market with underwhelming earnings guidance while profit margins continue to be pressured by still elevated input costs, particularly from labor, and softening demand.  Banking sector turmoil resulting from the Fed’s aggressive interest rate tightening cycle impacting investment portfolios grabbed headlines over the past month, but seemingly have faded into the background as the Fed has announced a new emergency liquidity facility to cover uninsured deposits.  The turmoil still drove an increase in concerns over a hard landing given expectations for tighter credit conditions and risks of bank exposure to commercial real estate.  Stress in the banking sector did lead to a meaningful reprieve of interest rates with yields plunging significantly, as well as aggressive expectations for a Fed pivot. 

Not Fooling Around

With last week’s gains closing out March on a high note, the S&P 500 now sits where it did exactly two years ago, having dropped and rebounded in the interim.  The index has been range-bound over the past six months and we are now at the upper end of that range, which we saw back in September and again in December.  This time will the market be able to break through and continue a more sustained upward trajectory?  

As is usually the case, sector returns have diverged and in some cases are very different than the broader market.  Last year’s laggards – Technology, Communication Services, and Consumer Discretionary, have been the strongest performers this year with Financials, Energy, and Healthcare being laggards.  The case for a sustained bull market includes moderating inflation and the possibility of nearing the end of the interest rate cycle, continued strength in the labor market and consumer spending, as well as banking stabilization.  Arguments for a continued bear market are caution around stretched valuations, recession signaling from the yield curve inversion and concern about how long consumers can remain resilient given that wages are not keeping pace with inflation and savings rates are falling. 

A strong case could be made that a mild recession has already been priced into the market.  We remain cautiously optimistic that the Fed will be able to engineer a soft landing, however the likely outcomes are somewhat of a paradox.  If the economy can avoid a recession, it is likely inflation will linger and the Fed will need to continue raising rates, putting pressure on both the stock and bond markets.  If the Fed does not need to continue raising rates and can in fact pivot and begin to lower rates (which we do not think will occur until at least the last quarter of this year, barring any unanticipated events), it is likely the result of a slowing economy. This would likely also weigh on equities but would be bullish for bonds.  The easiest prediction at this point is that the markets will continue to muddle through and may not move significantly in either direction over the next several months.  Since the S&P 500 is already higher by 7% on the year and the Nasdaq has gained nearly 16%, many investors would even be quite content with those gains for the year. 

Looking Ahead

The new quarter will be ushered in with the March jobs report on Friday.  (As a side note, the markets will be closed on Friday in observance of Good Friday.)  The jobs report is anticipated to show continued growth in the labor market and the unemployment rate holding steady at 3.6%.  The Federal Reserve’s forecasts released in mid-March show unemployment rising to 4.5% by year-end.  Investors continue to look for signs the turmoil in the banking sector is weighing on broader economic activity but impacts from tighter credit conditions are not likely to impact economic readings for at least another month.  We may not know for several months if the banking crisis has been resolved or if it worsens.  Regardless of the outcome, there tends to be no middle ground in a banking crisis, it either happens or does not.  The bond market is likely pricing in too many rate cuts or not enough. 

With the first quarter behind us, attention will turn to earnings in a couple of weeks with expectations already having been lowered.  Valuations, which seemed to have been largely overlooked in the first quarter, are likely to again come into focus.  We will also be watching oil prices after OPEC+ producers announced surprise output cuts, which is expected to cause an immediate rise in prices.  After falling to their lowest levels in 15 months on concerns a global banking crisis would hit demand, oil prices have been rebounding as the crisis subsides, at least temporarily.  Production cuts may accelerate the move higher and higher energy costs could contribute to higher inflation in the months ahead.

As we have experienced over the past year, markets remain highly unpredictable.  Be sure the level of risk you are taking is commensurate with your risk tolerance and risk capacity. Do not let dramatic movements in the market fool you and sabotage your retirement.  Please contact us if you would like to discuss your situation in detail or learn about the strategies we are implementing to protect against market downturns while participating in rebounds.        

Have a wonderful week!

Nathan Zeller, CFA, CFP®

Chief Investment Strategist
Secured Retirement
nzeller@securedretirements.com

Please contact us if you would like to review your individual financial plan or learn how the TaxSmart™ Retirement Program can help you.   

info@securedretirements.com
Office phone # 952-460-3260

The Rate Hikes Will Continue…

Legend is that Lieutenant William Bligh was a strict disciplinarian aboard the Royal Naval vessel HMS Bounty. Despite there being no known written record of it, the statement “The beatings will continue until morale improves” is often attributed to Lt. Bligh during his tenure as the ship’s captain.  The crew of the Bounty eventually became fed up and staged a mutiny April of 1798, seizing control of the ship from Lt. Bligh, sending him and eighteen loyalists adrift in the South Pacific.  The Federal Reserve seems to be on a similar steadfast path of raising interest rates until inflation subsides. But with cracks appearing in the financial system the markets seem to be staging their own mutiny. 

The Fed raised its target interest rate by a quarter percentage point last Wednesday, continuing its campaign to fight inflation, which remains persistent and above the Fed’s proclaimed comfort zone.  Comments from Fed officials after the meeting also signaled that at least one more rate hike may be in store.  They also stated their current assumption is that other tools, such as emergency lending and deposit guarantees, will contain damage among U.S. banks.  It is quite possible stress from banks and the recent tightening of lending standards will curb economic activity, helping counter inflation and taking some of the pressure off the Fed to continue raising interest rates. 

Interest rates have continued their wild ride with longer term rates continuing to drop from recent highs, indicating markets expect economic activity to slow and the Fed to lower rates faster than previously thought.  The inversion between 2-year and 10-year Treasury bond yields continues to narrow.  Such inversions do not guarantee a recession but have been accurate predictors in the past, generally about 9-12 months in advance. An upcoming recession has been widely predicted by many economists, perhaps the most anticipated recession in history.  But it should be noted that the difference in yields tends to climb back above zero just before recessions begin, so one may be on the near horizon if this pattern repeats itself.  

Navigating the Rough Seas

In the face of volatility, equity markets finished last week higher with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq both posting gains for the second consecutive week, overcoming global banking turmoil which continues to weigh on financial stocks. Technology stocks have been the strongest performers as of late with the Nasdaq now higher by 13% on the year.  The financial sector continues to languish as major European banks have found themselves in trouble, pressuring stocks of foreign and domestic institutions.   Last week’s volatility was marked by the buyout (rescue) of Credit Suisse, pushing stocks higher, but they dropped mid-week on the heels of comments from Fed Chair Powell that the Fed plans to continue raising short-term rates, coupled with a statement from Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen that blanket deposit insurance is not something currently being considered. Stocks overcame concerns about the health of Deutsche Bank and the possibility of contagion spreading to life insurance companies on Friday to rebound and end the week on a positive note.     

Materials stocks and commodities are experiencing headwinds amid global recession fears and reduced demand but supplies of raw materials are tightening.  If a recession is avoided or supplies are further constrained there could be a sharp snap-back in commodities prices.  Throughout the recent financial upheaval, gold and Treasury bonds have been safe havens.  This behavior is reminiscent of asset price action during periods of market turmoil in the past, more so than what we experienced in 2022 when stocks, bonds, and precious metals all lost value.  Corporate bonds, especially non-investment grade or high-yield, have also come under pressure recently since a large majority of that market is comprised of financial firms.  Spreads, or the difference in yields between corporate and treasury bonds of similar maturities, have been widening; an indication that investors are requiring greater compensation for the additional risk.  However, spreads are not yet near what would be considered levels of stress, but this is something to watch in coming weeks.      

Looking Ahead

Attention will remain focused on the financial sector, with any major news likely to drive markets.  There have been reports and data showing a significant amount of deposits being moved from smaller banks into larger banks but that seems to have subsided, at least temporarily.  A great deal of money has also been moved into money market funds for safety.  This money can easily be invested in the market so if (when) we see a stock rebound it could quickly accelerate as there is plenty of money waiting on the sidelines.  The Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, the Personal Consumption Indicator (PCE) deflator will be released this coming week but since the Fed does not meet again until May this particular report may have limited importance with many other data points being released throughout April.  Market catalysts in April are likely to shift away from the Fed and toward first quarter earnings reports, barring any major events in the financial sector.   

At odds with signals from Fed officials that they plan to continue raising interest rates, the Fed Funds futures market is signaling the Fed is done raising rates and, in fact, not only currently predict the Fed will pivot and begin to lower rates in June but also rates will be lower by at least a full percentage point by the end of the year.  Over the past 25 years there have been three completed hiking cycles; when the current cycle eventually ends it will be the fourth.  During the three previous cycles rates were held at their terminal rate for a minimum of 7 months. Even if we are at the top of the current interest rate hiking cycle, history tells us the Fed probably will not drop rates until at least late in the year, if not 2024.  If they do indeed begin to lower rates in the next few months it would be because of something “breaking,” which now seems to be the banks.  That is not a good scenario for stocks.  A much more favorable scenario would be if the Fed does not have to do a quick pivot, though higher rates could weigh on growth stocks such as technology since their prices are predicated upon future cash flows which have a lower present value when interest rates are higher. 

If you are stressed about the current market environment, contact us if you would like to learn about strategies to protect your portfolio while not missing out on the possibility of a market rebound.  Avoid having a mutiny wreak havoc on your retirement plans.          

Have a wonderful week!

Nathan Zeller, CFA, CFP®

Chief Investment Strategist
Secured Retirement
nzeller@securedretirements.com

Please contact us if you would like to review your individual financial plan or learn how the TaxSmart™ Retirement Program can help you.   

info@securedretirements.com
Office phone # 952-460-3260

March Madness

The term “March Madness” was originally used in 1939 to commemorate a high school basketball tournament in Illinois.  It was not brought to the NCAA Basketball Tournament until 1982 when sportscaster Brent Musberger used the term while covering the event for CBS.  From there the term soon became synonymous with the national tournament, even though the NCAA did not take ownership of it until 2010.  When most people hear the term March Madness they probably think of the basketball tournament but the phrase has recently been thrown around when describing the markets. 

Equities were mixed in a week dominated by a blizzard of headlines around banking uncertainties.  Markets were whipsawed by evolving concerns about the banking industry following the regulatory shutdown of Silicon Valley Bank.  Many other banks thought to be at risk of deposit outflows also came under pressure, including many smaller and regional institutions.  Banks take deposits and use the money to make loans.  Due to the inherent risk in making loans, not all deposits are loaned out so banks are required to maintain a certain amount of capital, generally invested in bonds of government entities.  The sharp rise in interest rates over the past year has led to the value of many of the bonds, especially those that are longer dated, being worth much less than their face value.  If depositors withdraw deposits, the bank is forced to sell those bonds at a loss, reducing the bank’s capital. If the bank does not maintain a certain level of capital it is closed by regulators. 

The stress in the financial sector has caused interest rates to plunge with yields on 2-year U.S. Treasuries falling more than 1% in a week and a half. Yields on 10-year bonds also dropped, but the rate spread in yields between 2-year and 10-year bonds has narrowed considerably after hitting a fresh post-1981 record inversion a week ago.  In this atmosphere, expectations for the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting and further interest rate trajectory have become quite volatile.   

Bracket Busters

“Bracket Buster” is a term used when an underdog, or lower seeded team, unexpectedly defeats a higher seeded team in the tournament since the results often knocks out subsequent predictions of a fan’s (or bettor’s) bracket, which they filled out with game predictions.  Odds of interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve have been gyrating since the beginning of the year, with odds having steadily increased for rates to move higher and stay there for longer. However, predictions of future rate increases have significantly changed over the past couple of weeks with the stress in the financial sector. 

Even with turmoil in the banking industry and uncertainty ahead, the Federal Reserve likely will approve a quarter-percentage-point interest rate increase, but for the first time in a very long time the action of the Fed is not a foregone conclusion.  Rate expectations have been on a rapidly swinging pendulum over the past two weeks, varying from a half-point hike to holding the line and even at one point some talk that the Fed could cut rates.  However, a consensus has emerged that Fed Chairman Jerome Powell and his fellow central bankers will want to signal that while they are attuned to the financial sector upheaval, it’s important to continue the fight to bring down inflation.  The interest rate increase will likely be accompanied by assurances that there’s no preset path ahead. The outlook could change depending on market behavior in the coming days, but the indication is for the Fed to hike, especially since last week’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) numbers indicated inflation remains sticky at an annual increase of 6%, still well above the Fed’s comfort zone.

Looking Ahead

The major event of the week will be the crucial two-day meeting of the Federal Reserve.  While there is much speculation regarding the outcome, it remains largely unknown, and it may be the post-meeting public comments from Jerome Powell that move markets the most.  Somewhat contrary to interest rate hikes, monetary conditions may be loosening with the new Bank Term Funding Program (BTFP) pushing bank borrowing and in some ways undoing the work of the Fed’s Quantitative Tightening (QT) program.  Also, bond yields have dropped dramatically over the past several days leading to lower borrowing costs and perhaps providing some economic stimulus.  There is a possibility this will provide a tailwind to risk assets, i.e. stocks. 

We continue to monitor the situation with the banking sector, but at this time do not think there will be further contagion and deeper economic strain.  However, the added stress coupled with continued tightening by the Fed seems to be increasing odds we will experience a hard landing and recession later this year.  Our biggest concern remains corporate profit growth.  First quarter earnings reports will begin in a few weeks, which is likely to set the tone for the remainder of the year. If earnings estimates were to drop further, it would not bode well for the markets.  By the time earnings begin we should also have further clarity and resolution regarding the banking sector.

If you would like to review your portfolio to ensure it is positioned to weather the current madness, do not hesitate to contact us.  Do not chance having your retirement dreams busted by unexpected events.      

Have a wonderful week!

Nathan Zeller, CFA, CFP®

Chief Investment Strategist
Secured Retirement
nzeller@securedretirements.com

Please contact us if you would like to review your individual financial plan or learn how the TaxSmart™ Retirement Program can help you.   

info@securedretirements.com
Office phone # 952-460-3260