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Weekly Insights 1/3/22 – 1/7/22

Let’s Get Ready to Rumble!

The beginning of an event or occasion brings high levels of anticipation and possibly anxiety.  This might include sporting events, movies, leaving on a trip, or starting a new job.  Beginning a new year is no different as there is much optimism for what lies ahead and perhaps some trepidation on how it may be different than the past.  Given the recent challenges faced, there should be more hope and less worry since everyone has been forced to face, overcome, and grow from adversity.  From these experiences we should all feel stronger and more confident in facing what lies ahead.  There are lessons learned from 2021 which we can carry into 2022; below are three we would like to share as the new year kicks off.  

Never take anything for granted. Being safe in place taught us to cherish time together and to appreciate ability to freely leave our homes, visit stores, and dine out. Access to supplies and cheap gasoline are no longer assumed as readily available. Our shortages draw no comparison to earlier generations’ food and energy demands. However, we will remember to bring gratitude for what we do have, even the basics often taken for granted.

History has a way of repeating itself. Oftentimes, we hear the phrase, “things are different now,” followed by why the world has changed (which it has) and closed with why the past will never happen again. Hearing this is especially true to talk on the stock market and economy. Proceed with caution when speaking of inflation. We’ve grown accustomed to low levels that leads to complacency toward spending and investing. This year brace for elevated inflation with experts drawing historic parallels to post-World War II and the 1970s. History repeats itself so apply lessons from the past. 

Be prepared but be adaptable. To work from home shows the marvels of modern technology and ability to pivot and adjust. The “Great Resignation” describes the multitudes leaving jobs to pursue other interests. Unfortunately, many involuntarily lost jobs as a result of shifts in the workforce. Regardless of why, if there is a career transition, have a plan in place should your circumstances change. Be adaptable. You never know where opportunities lie. 

Yes, Virginia, There is a Santa Claus

With the focus on the year ahead, it would not be difficult to overlook what has occurred in the stock market over the past couple of weeks.  But since this is likely to set the tone as we embark on the new year, it is worth mentioning.  The fourth quarter of 2021 was the best quarter of the year for the major stock market indices.  The year-end “Santa Claus” rally we all wished for came to fruition with the S&P 500 climbing about 5% from its short-term low point on December 20th.  This may not be over yet, as this type of rally tends to extend into the first two trading sessions of the new year and bodes well for entire month of January since historically the markets have enjoyed strong performance when coming off solid year-end momentum.    

When the calendar flips over, the stock market does not start again at zero; it continues where it left off the previous year.  The same also goes for the economy and society in general.  We begin the year with the same concerns we had when 2021 came to an end, such as inflationary pressures, supply chain issues, and stretched stock price valuations. These will certainly change throughout the upcoming year, either better or worse.  But we also need to remember the positive factors in the market, including robust earnings outlooks, stable consumer spending, and still-accommodative monetary policy.  Our projection is that the positives will again outweigh the negatives in the market and we will see positive returns, albeit probably not to the same levels as we were able to enjoy the last two years.  

Looking Ahead 

The new year is going to bring new challenges and the markets will act differently than they have in the past couple of years.  We don’t know for certain what will happen over the next 365 days, but there are bound to be some surprises.  We can plan ahead with what we do know and expect, learning from past experiences.  For example, we expect the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates.  We also expect inflation to continue at higher levels than what we’ve faced in recent decades.  The challenge will be to position portfolios accordingly and take advantage of these opportunities.  

As the new year begins, we hope that you view it with anticipation and optimism.  Maybe you personally want to set a resolution to try something new or different.  Here at Secured Retirement, we look forward to providing you peace of mind for all life’s lessons. If any of these lessons spur a need for plan adjustments, let’s connect and chart a smooth course for the year ahead.  

Wishing you all a happy, healthful, and prosperous 2022!

Nathan Zeller, CFA, CFP®

Chief Investment Strategist

Secured Retirement

nzeller@securedretirements.com

Please contact us if you would like to review your individual financial plan or learn how the TaxSmart™ Retirement Program can help you.   

info@securedretirements.com
Office phone # (952) 460-3260

Weekly Insights 12/27/21 – 12/31/21

Party Like It’s…

Without a doubt the past two years have been challenging with many happy to bid adieu to 2021.  As we look ahead to 2022 there is optimism, but we would be remiss to not reflect on this last year before moving ahead.  Notwithstanding personal health issues or any negative impacts the pandemic may have had on loved ones, in most regards 2021 could be considered a decent year, especially when compared to a year ago.      

From the stock market point-of-view, 2021 was a decent year with the S&P 500 returning more than 25% year-to-date.  On a long-term historical, this benchmark returns on average somewhere between 8-10% annually making this year well above average.  In comparison, 2020 had the index returning over 18%, despite the nearly 35% nosedive experienced by the market when COVID first threw the world into unexpected chaos. 

The economy has stabilized and remains robust with unemployment levels falling dramatically throughout the past year and nearing some of the lowest levels in history. Personal incomes and average hourly earnings rose sharply and are at all-time highs.  The economy is now expanding on its own regardless of the government stimulus payments and pent-up demands.  Unfortunately, inflation is forecasted to be the highest this country has seen in decades.  Higher prices equate to a higher cost of living and when viewed in real-terms, income and wages do not stretch as far as they used to.  Generally higher prices occur due to economic growth, therefore not all inflation is negative.  However, when personal income is not aligned with inflation it creates a difficult environment for consumers and workers, as experienced now. 

This last week, the markets began with a sharply negative day attributed primarily to news that the Build Back Better (aka federal spending) bill does not have the support needed for passage. Goldman Sachs indicated that GDP growth in 2022 will be less than previous expectations due to the lack of passage of the over trillion-dollar spending bill.  While the individuals at Goldman Sacks may be very knowledgeable and intelligent, we somewhat disagree with their assessment.  Yes, some of the spending would go towards certain social programs that benefit the economy in the short-term, but the amount of spending proposed would add increased liquidity into the economy, further fueling inflation.  Further, not all the spending would contribute towards growth and the expenditures require further funding through the combination of tax hikes and debt, which would be a drag on future growth especially when looking out longer-term.

Also affecting the markets was further insight regarding shifts in monetary policy from the Federal Reserve, the increase in omicron COVID cases with the discussion of potential shutdowns, including soft lockdowns. Soft lockdowns are those driven by business reductions and closings due to the virus spread.  Tuesday’s quickrebound energized the market with continued gains throughout the rest of the week where we now again sit at all-time highs.  It

seems the Santa Claus rally we all hoped for came to fruition, especially if it continues this coming week to finish the year strong. 

Watching the Ball Drop

When we transition from year to year there is a distinct cut over on the calendar, but most other aspects of our lives do not change significantly as the ball drops in Times Square. This is also very true of the markets and economy.  As we enter 2022, it is highly likely inflation will continue to make headlines, but we also expect employment and consumer spending to remain strong.  Last week Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE), which measures the change in prices of consumer goods and services, was reported as being 5.7% higher than a year ago.  This is the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation and well above their comfort zone of 2-3%.  Unless something dramatically changes, we expect this coming year for there to be a lot of activity from the Fed, such as adjusting interest rates. 

The newly released Consumer Confidence Index indicates continued optimism amongst consumers for income, business, and labor market conditions and setting the stage for continued growth as we enter the new year.  There could be headwinds to confidence and consumer spending from rising prices and an expected winter surge of the pandemic. Consumer spending looks to remain strong, especially for larger ticket items such as homes, appliances, automobiles, and vacations.  We will also be watching retail sales numbers reported for the holiday season determining how robust spending was and if there were any supply chain issues. 

Looking Ahead

As the yuletide cheer subsides and the holiday decorations are put away, let us not forget the memories created from the holiday seasons.  The same can be said of the markets – we learned valuable lessons from years past and the last two are certainly no exception.  We continuously use these learnings to position portfolios. 

We hope the momentum seen in the markets continues and the Santa Claus rally stays intact through the end of the year.  2021 remains a solid performance for the stock market where the party can last past New Year’s Eve.  We remain hopeful and optimistic for the year ahead but also feel investors will face different challenges than experienced in the recent past.  As we look ahead, please do not hesitate to contact us should you want to review your portfolio or discuss our views on what might occur in 2022. 

Wishing you all a very happy, healthy, and safe New Year!

Nathan Zeller, CFA, CFP®

Chief Investment Strategist

Secured Retirement

nzeller@securedretirements.com

Please contact us if you would like to review your individual financial plan or learn how the TaxSmart™ Retirement Program can help you.   

info@securedretirements.com
Office phone # (952) 460-3260

Weekly Insights 12/20/21 – 12/24/21

You’ll Shoot Your Eye Out

As you progress through life, the things you desire most will most likely change.  A child with few worries about the outside world may want nothing more than receiving a special toy as a gift.  Perhaps this toy would be a Red Ryder BB Gun, as was longed for by a young Ralphie Parker in the classic film, “A Christmas Story.”  When you get older into adulthood, you are likely to concern yourself with bigger issues and certain “toys,” which instead of BB guns might be hunting rifles, golf clubs or even a boat, may still be wanted but in the big picture they often become less important than items of greater significance in your life.  For those saving for retirement, one of their greatest wishes, if not the greatest, may be to ensure they have accumulated enough money to continue to support their income and lifestyle.  Regardless of what you might yearn for most, anyone reading this is most likely wanting a stock market to continue the upward trajectory it has generally been on over the past decade. 

Unfortunately, this was not the case last week with the stock markets moving lower, which was primarily attributed to the Federal Reserve (the Fed) meeting in the middle of the week.  Markets traded lower early in the week in anticipation of this meeting and as expected the Fed announced they were going to reduce their monthly bond buying program faster than when this taper was announced last month. It is now forecasted the program will be wrapped up in March, setting the stage for an interest rate hike in June, or possibly sooner, with projections for three total rate hikes in the year.  The stock markets reacted positively to this announcement on Wednesday, even though it was widely anticipated, because there was some concern the Fed would take more drastic measures to combat inflation such as further speeding up the taper of the bond buying program or even raising rates immediately. 

Many stocks, specifically many technology companies, were hit particularly hard later in the week due to worries over higher interest rates and slowing economic activity. This might mark the beginning of a shift from momentum stocks, which have performed very well over the past few years, and into more of the value sectors as the markets pay more attention to valuations in a rising interest rate environment.  There was relatively little change in the narrative surrounding the Omicron variant, but it does remain an overhang and therefore causes continued headwinds to the market.   

The Biden Administration’s Build Back Better spending bill had its tongue stuck to a frozen flagpole over the weekend with Sen. Joe Manchin announcing he would not be supporting the bill, effectively killing it.  If this bill would have passed it could have produced a short-term catalyst to push markets higher since it introduces a high level of government spending, but in the long-term it was likely to cause even more inflation and potentially be a drag on economic growth from higher levels of government debt.  There is always a chance the parties will continue talks and come to an agreement which would resurrect the bill, but chances are minimal and if that were to occur it would not be until sometime in 2022. 

The Soft Glow…

A soft glow is a stark contrast to burning bright with the former a reference to the “major award” (aka leg lamp) won in a contest by the Old Man (Ralphie’s father) in the aforementioned movie while the latter could be used to describe the current state of inflation.  The Producer Price Index (PPI), a measure of wholesale prices of goods before they are sold to consumers, last month rose more than analysts’ estimates at a record high pace of 9.6% compared to a year ago.  These price increases are generally passed along to consumers and with PPI increases accelerating it is very likely consumer prices will continue to move higher in coming months.  We expect inflation to remain a large threat to investors’ returns in 2022 and beyond. 

Last week retail sales for the month of November were reported and came in less than expectations, but still showed a monthly increase in spending by consumers.  Previously October retail sales were reported noticeably stronger than expectations, so the thought is the most recent numbers reflect consumers pulling forward holiday shopping because of concerns about product availability due to supply chain issues.  Indications remain that holiday spending this year will surpass previous years and be the highest on record, which can be attributed to greater personal wealth and higher household incomes thanks to a strong stock market, solid labor market and stimulus payments.  We monitor consumer spending closely since it comprises over two-thirds of GDP and we will remain especially watchful going into the new year when spending traditionally slows down and now that the stimulus payments have ended but remain optimistic for continued strength in spending from increasing wages and a robust employment situation. 

Looking Ahead

With the year winding down and major holidays approaching, we would expect the markets to get quieter.  Trading volumes are decreasing, as tends to be the case this time of year.  On the economic front, there are some key data releases coming up this week including consumer confidence, durable goods orders, and personal consumption expenditure (PCE) price index, which happens to be the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation.  Given the holiday and lower trading activity we do not expect any of these to have a major impact on the markets unless there is a major surprise, either to the downside or upside.  We follow these numbers closely since they provide signals about the health of the economy and can impact how the stock market reacts.  With recent market events, we will also be keeping a vigilant eye on how various sectors perform over the next few weeks to look for indications on which direction the market might be headed and what we think the new year will bring so we can best position our clients’ portfolios to protect against risk and capitalize on opportunities.

We remain hopeful for a year-end Santa Claus rally in the stock market, which would satisfy the author’s Christmas wish.  If this does not come to fruition, settling for a leg lamp might not be so bad since the market has already provided another great year of returns.  As always, we remain available to discuss market events and portfolio positioning.  With 2021 winding down, it is time to start looking ahead to 2022 and consider how the world might be different going forward.  But for this week, hopefully you are able to spend time with family or friends to celebrate the holiday.  If Santa does bring you a Red Ryder BB gun, don’t shoot your eye out. 

Wishing you all a very Merry Christmas!

Nathan Zeller, CFA, CFP®

Chief Investment Strategist

Secured Retirement

nzeller@securedretirements.com

Please contact us if you would like to review your individual financial plan or learn how the TaxSmart™ Retirement Program can help you.   

info@securedretirements.com
Office phone # (952) 460-3260

Weekly Insights 12/13/21 – 12/17/21

Let it Snow, Let it Snow, Let it Snow

A relatively mild start to the winter season came to a rather abrupt end last week with colder temperatures and measurable snow. On its own, snow can provide pretty scenery, however for those taking part in a daily commute the snow can cause headaches. When taken individually, snow and commuting are independent events, however one can have a major bearing on the other. While it could be argued the stock market itself can impact outside events, the stock market is very susceptible to being influenced by outside events.

The stock market began last week on some very high notes, putting together the best two-day streak in over a year. The uplift in the market was attributed to the realization the Omicron variant is more mild than previous COVID variants and therefore not expected to lead to further restrictions which could dampen economic growth. The re-opening stocks, such as travel companies and restaurants, led the rally to rebound from their losses the prior week. The markets finished the week quieter on the heels of a hot inflation report and now sit at the same levels where they were trading prior to Thanksgiving and the latest COVID scare. This provides another example of the importance of maintaining a long-term view and not getting caught up in the short-term noise.

After the excitement in the markets the past couple of weeks, we are starting to experience lower trading volumes which we expect to continue to decrease through the end of the year. Much of the portfolio positioning from large institutional investors and tax harvesting from individual investors is winding down. Preliminary reports of holiday consumer spending have been positive with some reports of supply chain and inventory issues, but many retailers remain optimistic that conditions are improving and shelves are well stocked.

Rising Prices

Consumers are fully aware that prices are rising even without data releases from the government. This is especially true during the holiday season when spending for gifts and food is generally at higher levels than at other times during the year. The monthly data release on inflation, Consumer Price Index (CPI), showed that consumer prices have risen by 6.8% compared to a year ago; the highest level since 1982. This report was slightly higher than analysts’ expectations and continues to trend higher. What is alarming is that inflation seems to be gaining momentum with the amount of change from month to month growing larger. Barring an unanticipated event, the rate of increases will need to abate before inflation moderates. We anticipate elevated levels of inflation for the foreseeable future, further cutting into the buying power of consumers as well as the real rates of returns for investors. We will be watching the Producer Price Index (PPI) release this coming week since producer prices tend to be a forerunner of consumer prices.

Job openings remain at the highest levels in history, as was reported last week. The employment reports have shown that unemployment remains low and continues to improve, evidenced last week when the number of continuing unemployment claims hit its lowest level since 1969. Despite this low level of unemployment, there remains some slack in the labor market as we are not yet at what is considered full employment. Labor costs, which have been rising at a rate markedly above the long-term average since the beginning of this year and contributing to inflation, with signals this will continue and could accelerate. Having abundant jobs available, which companies need to fill, coupled with low rates of unemployment are very likely to lead to higher wage pressure.

Looking Ahead

The focus this week will be on the Federal Reserve (the “Fed”) meeting. Recent comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell and other members of the committee indicate there will be discussion about speeding up the taper of asset purchases with the expectation being the program will wind down faster than previously anticipated. This will set the stage for multiple interest rate hikes in 2022. At the conclusion of their meeting, the Fed will also release the results of their quarterly internal survey of interest rate expectations going forward, commonly referred to as the Dot Plot. It is projected this will show two rate hikes next year with increasing odds of a third. This is a change from the previous quarter which showed only one rate hike next year. Over the past couple of decades the Fed has strived for transparency, minimizing the impact their actions have on the stock market. However, given the current inflation situation and rapidly changing dynamics in the economy they now have to act faster than in the past, allowing less time to telegraph their intentions. Market reactions, both stock and bond, are most likely to be limited since the markets responded, somewhat sharply, to Chairman Powell’s comments two weeks ago when he provided a preview of discussions at this meeting, unless there is a major deviation from prior comments which would come as a surprise.

The onset of snow does guarantee winter has arrived but unfortunately does not guarantee a year-end Santa Claus rally in the stock market, for which we remain hopeful. For the time being enjoy the scenery the snow provides as it should help get us all in the holiday spirit. We remain available to discuss market events, how they impact your portfolio and strategies to protect against downturns while taking advantage of opportunities. Do not hesitate to give us a call to discuss your individual situation and any year-end strategies.

Wishing you all a happy and joyous holiday season!

Nathan Zeller, CFA, CFP®

Chief Investment Strategist

Secured Retirement

nzeller@securedretirements.com

Please contact us if you would like to review your individual financial plan or learn how the TaxSmart™ Retirement Program can help you.

info@securedretirements.com Office phone # (952) 460-3260

Weekly Insights 12/6/21 – 12/10/21

Switch to Decaf

Coffee has been prevalent around the globe for centuries with increased popularity over the past few decades from the surge of large coffee chains and the jolt of caffeine the beverage provides. Specialty drinks based upon coffee have come into vogue and helped propel this ascension. In the current time of year, aficionados are likely to point out that Thanksgiving marks the transition from pumpkin spice latte to peppermint mocha. If the stock market drank coffee, the volatility of the past week might have many of us wish it would switch to decaf and settle down.

Picking up from where it left off from the holiday shortened previous week, the market continued with volatility – to the upside and the downside, and in some cases both on the same day. The latest covid variant, Omicron, continued to be at the forefront but comments from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell also moved the markets, as did the monthly employment report. The equity markets ended the week lower, near levels last seen in mid-October, and bond yields retreated.

Our assessment is the market, particularly investors, are not afraid of the virus itself but rather how governments might react, with renewed fear of shutdowns or policy mistakes. Widespread restrictions have been announced in Europe but domestic governments have thus far indicated there will not be lockdowns or restrictions, with the exception of some foreign travel. The impact lockdowns could have on the global economy, especially ongoing supply chain issues, coupled with the possibility of additional stimulus would likely further fan the flames of inflation, which remains relatively high and continues to accelerate.

Fed Chairman Powell provided testimony to Congress last week in which he said it was time to retire the term “transitory” when referring to the current state of inflation; finally acknowledging that inflation truly is persistent. He also suggested the Fed would be discussing a possible acceleration to its asset-purchase taper at their upcoming meeting, which would then set the stage for interest rate hikes sooner than previously anticipated. These comments moved stock markets lower, but in our opinion this is the best course of action for the economy and needs to be done to fight inflation before it becomes out of control.

Workin’ For a Livin’

There was no shortage of economic releases last week, with the most notable being employment and payrolls which were lower than expected, leading to some downward pressure on the markets to end the week. While the report did not deliver up to expectations it was not classified as a disaster since it did reflect sustained growth in the labor market. The unemployment rate dropped to 4.2% which is the lowest since before the pandemic. With job openings remaining near historical highs, we would expect continued strength in the employment reports and the number of jobs created in the months ahead. It is worth mentioning we have seen lower than expected numbers numerous times in the past which then

are revised upwards in subsequent months, so it would not be a surprise if that occurred with this month’s numbers.

Our elected politicians in Washington continue their work on current legislative priorities, albeit with limited progress. To use a football analogy, Congress moved near the edge of a government shutdown before “punting” the issue by voting to continue funding until February. Discussions continue in the Senate around the Build Back Better bill which even if it does pass will need to be reconciled with the House version making the likelihood of it being passed by the end of the year now seemingly low. The passage, or inaction, of this bill will most likely have limited short-term impact on the stock market however some provisions, such as changes to the tax code, would impact individuals with increased government spending adding to the inflation fire.

Looking Ahead

Omicron looks to remain front and center in the coming week(s) as we find out more about the transmission of the virus, severity of its symptoms, and potential impacts on the economy. Early indications are this variant is more contagious than previous variants, however symptoms are mild. To reiterate what we mentioned last week, it appears there has been an overreaction to the news and we think the markets will eventually brush this off and get back on track.

This coming week brings reports of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) from last month, which is a measure of the change in consumer prices and the most commonly used gauge of inflation. Consensus estimates from analysts are for the year-over-year change in inflation to be higher than last month’s reading, indicating inflationary pressures continue to accelerate. Regardless of where this report comes in versus expectations, there is little doubt inflation remains elevated which is expected to continue for the immediate future.

Beyond news making headlines, the markets tend to experience added volatility this time of year from year-end portfolio positioning and tax harvesting. This year seems to be no exception and we would expect some swings in the market to continue over the next couple of weeks however it certainly would not come as a surprise if we see a “Santa Claus rally” to close out the year. For the time being, many investors would like the markets to settle down and get into the holiday spirit. We are not getting too wound up over recent events since we maintain a long-term view of the markets and underlying fundamentals remain strong. Hopefully all of you are able to enjoy your favorite holiday beverages, hot or cold, and remain healthy. As always, do not hesitate to contact us should you want to discuss your portfolio positioning or if you have last-minute tax planning you need to do prior to year-end.

Wishing you all a happy and joyous holiday season!

Nathan Zeller, CFA, CFP®

Chief Investment Strategist

Secured Retirement

nzeller@securedretirements.com

Please contact us if you would like to review your individual financial plan or learn how the TaxSmart™ Retirement Program can help you.

info@securedretirements.com Office phone # (952) 460-3260

Weekly Insights 10/18/21 – 10/22/21

Did that Really Just Happen?

Sometimes when things are moving along nicely, whether it is a ride in a car or on a boat, or even on a larger scale as you go through life, something occurs that really catches you by surprise. These events can be good or bad and the impacts can be relatively minor or quite significant.  Often these occurrences happen so quickly you stop and ask yourself if that really took place.  The stock market seemed to have done just that last week, fortunately in a positive way. 

The markets began the week drifting lower in what appeared to be more of the same negative sentiment that we’ve experienced the past few weeks, but then something great happened on Thursday when the S&P 500 posted its largest single day gain since March.  This momentum continued with further gains on Friday. The big move was attributed primarily to a strong start to the earnings season, but also the weekly jobless claims numbers continue to drift lower reflecting continuing strengthening in the labor market.  It also helps that nationally we seem to be past the peak in the recent surge of coronavirus cases and a short-term agreement was made to raise the debt ceiling, averting a default by the federal government. 

Higher and Higher

We’ve all experienced higher prices recently on the things we buy, so it was not a surprise that the inflation data released by the government last week showed inflationary pressures persist. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 5.4% compared to a year ago, remaining at a 13 year high and the fifth month in a row inflation came in at 5% or higher. This was driven primarily by higher energy prices and a surge in food prices, plus the largest increase in rent in 20 years.  The Social Security Administration uses CPI data to adjust social-security payments and on a positive note announced last week the cost-of-living (COLA) increase for next year is 5.9%; the largest annual increase in about 40 years.  

Also on the inflation front, the Producer Price Index (PPI) increased 8.6% on an annual basis, which is the highest reading since the early 1980s.  The PPI measures the change in the price of goods sold by manufacturers and therefore is generally a leading indicator of consumer inflation.  Of note in this report was that a few months ago the price increases were attributable to a few products, namely lumber and used vehicles, but now the increases are more broadly spread amongst additional goods and services.  With inflation remaining persistent, many economists are no longer referring to it as being “transitory” but instead are now describing it as being “sticky.”

Looking Ahead

Earnings season kicks off in earnest this week, which we anticipate will provide further tailwinds for the markets.  Analysts are revising earnings estimates higher, albeit to a lesser extent than the previous two quarters.  Congress continues to consider large spending bills, but the price tags on each seem to be coming down which is likely another factor for optimism in the markets.  We continue to keep a close eye on interest rates, especially in light of the recent inflation reports. There seems to be a disconnect between bond yields and inflation, with low bond yields discounting that inflation will remain on a prolonged basis.  We think inflation will continue and bond yields will edge higher. Since bond yields and bond prices have an inverse relationship, any move higher in yields would cause a drop in prices.  Traditional fixed income may not provide the safety it has in the past so we would encourage you to consider other vehicles for providing income and diversification to your equity portfolio.  We would be glad to discuss strategies with you to protect your portfolio from inflation while providing protection in the event of downturn in the stock market. 

I will be sharing more insights and strategies during our monthly Lunch and Learn on October 25th.  You can join us in-person at our office here in St. Louis Park or watch online. See this week’s Secured Retirement Weekly Newsletter for more information and to sign-up. 

Have a wonderful week!

Nathan Zeller, CFA, CFP®

Chief Investment Strategist

Secured Retirement

nzeller@securedretirements.com

Please contact us if you would like to review your individual financial plan or learn how the TaxSmart™ Retirement Program can help you.

info@securedretirements.com

Office phone # (952) 460-3260

Ryan Keapproth

Ryan Keapproth

Financial Advisor

Ryan is dedicated to serving clients to achieve their retirement goals. Ryan’s holistic approach centers on wealth management strategies with a focus on income planning throughout retirement. As a Financial Advisor, Ryan is an Investment Adviser Representative (IAR), life and health insurance licensed and a Certified Tax Preparer. Ryan is a graduate of the University of Minnesota, with an Accounting and Finance major.​

Ryan is a lifelong Minnesotan originally from Woodbury and currently residing in Bloomington with his wife, Riamae, and their rescue Terrier Beagle mix, Douglas. Ryan and his wife are avid travelers as Riamae is originally from the Philippines. Ryan describes himself as a major foodie enjoying new restaurants around the cities whenever possible. Ryan enjoys playing golf and poker. He is a sports fan especially when the Vikings and Timberwolves are playing. In his formative years, Ryan tended bar at various places including Mystic Lake and Running Aces in Columbus, MN where he met his wife.  

We’re glad to have Ryan part of the Secured Retirement family too!