Tax Planning

Head I Win, Tails You Lose

I remember arguing with my folks about having to do chores when I was a child. In one instance my father cut a deal with me where he would flip a coin with the outcome determining whether or not I had to do the chores I was arguing about.  He told me if it came up heads he won but if it was tails I would lose.  My naivety at a relatively young age coupled with my insistence on a quick win deterred me from stopping to think about what was being proposed. Obviously this was a guaranteed winning situation for my father and a losing situation for me. It is very possible we are facing a similar situation with the economy today – one where there seem to be two possible outcomes, neither of which are desirable. 

Last week the stock markets performed strongly with the S&P 500 moving higher by more than 6%.  This was a welcomed respite in what had been a rather brutal month in the market, especially after the sharp losses of the prior week. Absent any major catalysts for this move, it may be that after three weeks of negative markets there might have been some selling “exhaustion,” and investors decided it was a good time to buy.  The S&P 500 is now out of bear market territory but still sharply lower year-to-date.  Time will tell if this ends up being a bear market rally and we see other moves lower or if we did experience the bottom and this is the beginning of a sustained rebound. 

There are indications corporate executives are viewing the recent negative sentiment in the stock market with caution and may alter expansion and hiring plans, helping to reduce inflation.  If this results in lower inflation, there becomes the possibility the Federal Reserve may not raise interest rates as much as currently expected and perhaps even start to lower rates during the later part of 2023.  This would be a major turn of events compared to two weeks ago when it was feared the Fed would need to raise rates aggressively over the next couple of years. This fear sent markets reeling two weeks ago after the Fed raised rates 75 basis points for the first time in 28 years.  Lending credence to this theory was the notable drop in bond yields, including the 10-year U.S. Treasury pulling back from its multi-year high near 3.5% all the way down to near 3.0%. This may not sound like much, but it is a rather dramatic move for fixed income markets, which tend to be a stronger indicator of the future than the stock market.  

But if the Fed does not need to raise interest rates as much as currently anticipated, doesn’t that mean we can avoid a recession and everything will be good?  Not exactly – corporations cutting back on hiring or expansion could push the economy into a recession on its own. The silver lining being the Fed does not need to raise rates as much as thought during this cycle. However, if this does not occur and corporations continue to spend money and expand, which we hope they do, then the Fed will most likely find themselves in a situation where they will be forced to continue to raise interest rates aggressively, which also has a high probability of causing a recession.  Hence, why this appears to be a “heads I win, tails you lose” situation in which there is not a desirable outcome.

Recession Watch

The fact we will face a recession seems to be the consensus amongst many economists and market analysts with the question really being “when,” this year or next (or possibly 2024), and not “if.”  The stock market reaching bear market territory, commodity prices falling, and the bond yield curve inverting all seem to be signs that a recession is imminent.  But this reminds us of a quip from economist Paul Samuelson back in the 1960s, where he stated, “The stock market has predicted nine of the past five recessions;” meaning the stock market often gives false signals. 

To consider an alternate outcome and play a game of “what-if” – what if the market has already priced in the worst scenarios?  What if energy prices continue to drop?  What if we somehow avoid a recession?  What if inflation does quickly abate?  What if the Fed does not need to raise interest rates substantially from here?  What if corporate earnings continue to grow?  A few weeks ago these scenarios individually may not have seemed plausible but now there is a growing inkling of hope they all could be. Energy prices dropped last week due to expectations for weaker demand going forward. This is turn will have a major impact on reported, and actual, inflation.  We are not saying this is what will occur, but merely stating possible scenarios. If this were to occur we would expect a very positive reaction in the stock market, which could happen quickly and overly cautious investors might find themselves missing out. 

Looking Ahead

We are faced with the prospects of an economic slowdown or recession, caused either by market forces or aggressive action from the Federal Reserve.  The Fed no doubt is still trying to engineer a “soft landing” and avoid a recession but this is likely to be outside their control.  Fed action may have little impact on some of the larger factors contributing to inflation, such as energy prices and continued supply chain issues.  The “what if” scenarios given above would be the very best outcomes but they also may be the least likely at this point.  Hopefully those odds improve in coming weeks. 

This week marks the end of the month and end of the quarter so there is the potential for added volatility, especially early in the week, but given what we’ve experienced this year may not be too much out of the ordinary. The end of the week will most likely be quiet as we coast into the holiday weekend.  When it comes to having a solid income and investment plan, be sure to position yourself with the best chances of winning and not find yourself facing a no-win situation. We are here to help you increase your odds of success. 

Have a great week!

Nathan Zeller, CFA, CFP®

Chief Investment Strategist
Secured Retirement
nzeller@securedretirements.com

Please contact us if you would like to review your individual financial plan or learn how the TaxSmart™ Retirement Program can help you.   

info@securedretirements.com
Office phone # 952-460-3260

Street Cred

“Street cred” is a slang term used to express acceptance and credibility (or “cred” for short) amongst the general public, most often used in reference to young people in an urban environment.  CNBC uses the word play to provide short biographies for their guests, with the “Street” referring to Wall Street.  Gaining credibility amongst your peers and the general public takes time and can be lost quickly.  The Federal Reserve had been losing credibility by not taking enough action to combat inflation, the likes of which we have not experienced in over 40 years. 

This began to change this week when the Federal Reserve, more precisely the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee (FOMC or commonly referred to as “The Fed”), raised the Fed Funds target rate by three-quarters of one percent (0.75%), the first time they have raised rates by that amount since 1994.  The move was somewhat surprising since the previous week members of the FOMC had indicated they planned to raise rates by one-half of a percent (0.50%). After the hotter than expected Consumer Price Index (CPI) report and University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey showing consumers were very concerned about inflation the Fed decided to up the ante and raise rates even more.  The decision to pivot at the last minute to a more aggressive rate hike underscores the general concern that inflation is worse that policymakers had anticipated, but the move helped restore confidence the Fed will do what is necessary to combat inflation, even if it means causing a recession. 

Acting quickly to rein in inflation may cause a faster economic slowdown since tighter monetary policy, in the form of higher interest rates, reduces the likelihood businesses and consumers will borrow money to make purchases since the cost to borrow is greater. We see this in the housing market where the national average for a 30-year fixed mortgage is now 5.78%, compared to 2.93% one year ago.  This difference in interest rates raises the monthly mortgage payment by 30-40% for an average priced home in most markets, making home purchases less affordable for many buyers, especially since incomes have not kept pace over the same time.   

The Fed is now projecting short-term rates to be 3.5% by year-end; an increase of 1.5% since projections were last released in April. With the latest Fed move taking the federal funds target range to 1.5% – 1.75%, the latest projections show rates hikes totaling nearly 2% are now expected between now and the end of the year.  Even if inflation falls from current levels of more than 8%, the Fed will need to continue to raise rates in future years until inflation is within their 2-3% target.  The Fed expects GDP growth to be only 1.7% each of the next two years and is projecting unemployment to rise as a result of slowing economic growth.  Slightly higher unemployment should reduce some of the wage pressures which are currently contributing to inflation but many other inflationary pressures exist, including high energy prices. 

Dancing in the Streets

The reaction to the Fed’s actions did not give investors reason to dance in the streets with markets, both stock and bond, whipsawing last week.  Initially stocks moved higher after the Fed announcement and Fed Chairman’s Powell’s post-meeting comments where he stated the Fed is not trying to deliberately cause a recession and they do not see a broader slowdown in the economy. The gains quickly turned to rather large losses on Thursday after there was a broader assessment of the economic conditions and signs of a slowdown.  Central banks around the world also raised interest rates, including Switzerland who had not previously raised rates in over 15 years, placing further pressure on global equities. 

The bond markets also reacted in dramatic fashion. After a sharp run-up in yields leading up to the Fed meetings, with the U.S 10-year Treasury yield reaching 3.48% its highest level since April 2011, interest rates pulled back about 0.25% across most maturities.  At one point last week the yield curve “inverted” with 2-year Treasuries yielding more than 10-year Treasuries. Historically a prolonged yield curve inversion has been an early signal of an impending recession, but last week’s inversion was very brief. The yield curve remains fairly flat, and perhaps “humped” with 3-year and 5-year Treasury yields higher than 10-year and 30-year Treasury yields, implying economic uncertainty and fears of a slowdown. 

Looking Ahead

Despite a very difficult stock market and economic challenges that lie ahead, there are reasons for optimism.  Inflows into equity funds remain robust and are expected to continue in earnest with the end of the quarter on the short horizon.  Many companies across various industries highlighted continued demand during comments made over the past week. Depending upon which metrics you follow, certain pockets of the market are now considered to be oversold and have the potential for a bounce, even if it is short-term. 

The Fed has indicated that another 75 basis point rate hike is on the table, and at this time expected, at their next meeting in July. We expect interest rates to continue to move higher, pushing bond prices lower, but are becoming more optimistic on forward prospects for the stock market.  Even with the S&P 500 being 23% lower year-to-date it remains higher than two years ago and 25% higher than three years ago.  If you have cash available, this might be a good opportunity to be dollar cost averaging.

The volatility and gyrations of the stock market can be stressful, which is why it is important you have a solid plan in place and are sticking with it. It is during times such as this that most investors react emotionally and make errors which have the potential to impact their future savings and possibly their lifestyle.  If the market volatility is causing you worry, please reach out to us so we can ensure you are comfortable with your risk level and position your portfolio accordingly.  

Have a great week!

Nathan Zeller, CFA, CFP®

Chief Investment Strategist
Secured Retirement
nzeller@securedretirements.com

Please contact us if you would like to review your individual financial plan or learn how the TaxSmart™ Retirement Program can help you.   

info@securedretirements.com
Office phone # 952-460-3260

Captain Obvious

Have you ever known somebody who frequently states the obvious?  Their statements might be superfluous and really not necessary; as if they like to hear themselves talk or simply feel it necessary to contribute to the conversation.  A slang term for such a person would be Captain Obvious.  A few years ago Hotels.com even ran an ad campaign centered around a fictional Captain Obvious who still has many humorous memes floating around the internet.  Often the economic reports that receive so much attention and move the markets in the short-term do just that – state what we already know is occurring in everyday life.  A great example of this was the Consumer Price Index (CPI) report on inflation last week, which simply confirmed what most of us are experiencing with inflation.   

The stock market showed promise to begin the week and some people were thinking the worst may have been behind us, but those hopes were, yet again, quickly dashed later in the week.  Fears over continued inflation sent markets lower Thursday with Friday being even worse after the CPI report on inflation remaining at the highest levels in 40 years.  When you break out the inflation report, much of it was attributable to higher energy costs, especially gasoline.  It was therefore no surprise the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index reached its lowest recorded value, comparable to the trough of the 1980 recession.  This index measures personal financial outlook, which worsened with 46% attributing negative views to inflation; a number only exceeded once since 1981. Numerous surveys are showing that consumer sentiment and financial outlook are quickly deteriorating due to fears over rising inflation and higher energy prices. 

In response to the higher than expected inflation reading, bond yields spiked pushing bond prices lower.  The bond market is already experiencing its worst year ever and not expected to improve. Fixed income is not providing the same type of diversification is has the past 40 years so it is time to consider other alternatives as diversification to equities, especially if you are looking to maintain your income stream.  Eventually higher bond yields will lead to some investment opportunities but if inflation is over 8% and bond yields are in the ballpark of 3-4% you are still losing purchasing power.   

Energy Prices are High!

Stating the obvious to anyone who has had to fill up their car with gas recently or uses natural gas in their home, energy prices are high and continue to climb. As was previously mentioned, the CPI report showed that inflation was driven primarily by higher energy prices since the cost of petroleum products affect most goods produced, either as a direct input or through the cost of transportation.   With inflation remaining stubbornly high, it is expected the Federal Reserve will raise short-term interest rates another half percent at their meeting this coming week and continue on this same path at the two subsequent meetings in July and September.  In theory, more restrictive monetary policy and higher interest rates should lead to lower consumption and demand, however it is doubtful energy demand is going to significantly subside over the next several years and therefore there is fear Fed will have little power to rein in inflation.  And in the meantime, our economy will be hampered by tighter monetary policy.  This is not a good combination.

Eventually alternative energy sources could alleviate the demand for fossil fuels but it will take many years for this to occur on a large scale. Since supply is not keeping up with demand and demand is expected to continue to increase as the economy expands, the only way for prices to drop is to increase supply.  What is hindering domestic supply now are federal government policies regarding drilling leases and limited refinery capacity.  Until restrictive government policies are eased and/or there is a thawing of geopolitical tensions, which seems unlikely, we can most likely expect higher energy prices for the foreseeable future.   

Looking Ahead

The most watched event of the coming week is the Fed meeting, but as was mentioned earlier, it seems a half point rate hike is a foregone conclusion so there are likely to be few surprises to move the market.  The Producer Price Index (PPI) will be released Tuesday, which measures wholesale prices before goods are sold to consumers and therefore tends to lead CPI.  The PPI has shown annual price increases of greater than 10% the past few months with elevated CPI numbers being reported in following months. We do not expect it to be any different this time.  A lower than expected PPI report does have the potential to give stock markets a boost but we would not count on it.  Retail sales for last month, which have become a key focus of late since it gives an idea of the state of consumers, will be released on Wednesday but they will most likely be overshadowed by the Fed meeting later in the day.    

Historically there tends to be added volatility at the end of June since it also marks the end of the quarter, but markets tend to settle down afterwards into the later summer.  Since it was such a dramatic pullback in the stock market last week, we could see a short bounce this coming week.  However, we remind our clients that instead of focusing on the short term, we encourage you to remain focused on your long-term objectives. With the expectation that bond yields will continue to rise, we continue to think the stock market is the best place to be invested even though we expect further volatility.  Commodities are currently working well, but it should be cautioned commodities can be very volatile and have the potential to drop in value quickly.  Case in point: lumber prices which have fallen 60% since March on expectations for lower demand due to a decrease in new home purchases. 

There are many factors affecting the markets currently, as there always are, so take a step back and look at what is happening. Market downturns generally provide great buying opportunities which often times look obvious in hindsight.  Instead of waiting for the future to look back, this is a good time to consider the present and how to best position your portfolio.  We are here to help you ensure your investment are properly positioned for what lies ahead. 

Have a great week!

Nathan Zeller, CFA, CFP®

Chief Investment Strategist
Secured Retirement
nzeller@securedretirements.com

Please contact us if you would like to review your individual financial plan or learn how the TaxSmart™ Retirement Program can help you.   

info@securedretirements.com
Office phone # 952-460-3260

Top Gun

During the pandemic, it was thought many aspects of our previous “normal” lives may never return.  Fortunately that has proven to be untrue which is why many people are excited to once again see movies in theaters.  One of these happens to be “Top Gun: Maverick,” the widely anticipated sequel to the 1986 movie “Top Gun.”  The premise of the original movie, besides being a great recruiting video for the U.S. Navy, is that an overly confident young pilot who is willing to take risks comes to realize he needs to make better decisions since those decisions tend to put himself and others around him in danger.  As his call sign, Maverick, implies, he does not always follow orders and often does what he thinks is best. While very talented, his actions sometimes have undesirable results.  Eventually he learns to make better decisions and be a better member of his squadron.  Investors in the stock market often follow the same path – they take unnecessary risks in hopes of having outsized results.  Wise people learn from this and become better investors, often taking less risk but seeing better long-term results. 

The stock markets were not able to follow-through from the prior week’s strength and despite a decent rally on Thursday ended with slight losses for the holiday-shortened week.  The major economic event was the employment report on Friday which showed that employment remains solid and job growth continues.  It can be argued that much of the job growth is recovery from the pandemic versus new jobs being created as a result of economic expansion but regardless of the cause, it is a promising sign that employment remains strong and the unemployment rate remains low at 3.6%.  Reported yearly wage growth for hourly workers, reported at a year-over-year increase of 5.2%, still lags inflation.  This demonstrates why many families are having to cut back on discretionary spending since they need more of their paychecks to cover essentials such as food and energy. 

Also of note last week was the Conference Board’s report on Consumer Confidence which surprised to the upside.  This survey is slightly different than the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment survey since the Conference Board’s survey is focused more on employment and business conditions while the University of Michigan survey covers personal finances and buying conditions.  Therefore, the latter is more susceptible to higher gasoline prices and would explain why we are currently seeing a divergence between the two.  Employment remains strong but consumer spending is changing, which will have ramifications for the economy in the months to come since consumer spending makes up roughly two-thirds of GDP. 

Danger Zone

The market pullback which has occurred thus far in 2022 is now being referred to as a “reset” primarily because stock valuations have fallen from lofty levels and are now more in-line with longer-term averages.  However, using the same metrics, stocks are not yet undervalued.  With inflation remaining near mutli-decade highs and the Federal Reserve expected to continue to raise interest rates, while also reducing their balance sheet, headwinds continue to exist for the markets. 

And since many risks remain, this is a good reminder there is generally more downside risk to markets when they are trading near highs versus when they pull back.  However, there still is potential for markets to move even lower and even though an asset, such as a stock, falls in price, as many stocks have, that does not mean it cannot fall further.  There are always risks in the market, some of which can be easily identified while others seem to come out of nowhere and surprise us, often referred to as “Black Swan” events.  The best thing to do is provide some protection for your portfolio for such events.  This can come in the form of diversification, not only for your assets but also for your income streams in retirement. 

Looking Ahead

The coming week brings the Consumer Price Index (CPI) report which has perhaps become the most watched economic release given the current state of inflation.  It is anticipated to show price increases of a little more than 8% over the previous year, remaining close to 40-year highs.  The Federal Reserve meets again in two weeks where it is highly anticipated they will raise short-term interest rates by another half percent. 

As we begin the summer months, we continue to look for a trend in the markets.  Will it regain some stable footing and improve or are we destined for another leg lower?  As we have been saying lately, there are just as many, if not more, reasons for the market to move higher than for it to move lower so we would not advise betting against it.  Regardless of what happens, especially whether or not we enter a recession, there is little doubt that the economy and markets have changed and will be different over the next several years. 

When it comes to meeting your goals, you don’t have to be the “Top Gun” or the best of the best.  There is no need to try to time the market perfectly or feel the need, the need for speed (to steal a line from the movie).  To be successful, you simply need the patience to execute a solid plan in a disciplined manner.  Do not let emotions and short-term market fluctuations alter your long-term view and objectives.  Please contact us should you feel continuing angst with the market or want to ensure you have a solid plan in place for a high probability of success. 

Have a great week!

Nathan Zeller, CFA, CFP®

Chief Investment Strategist
Secured Retirement
nzeller@securedretirements.com

Please contact us if you would like to review your individual financial plan or learn how the TaxSmart™ Retirement Program can help you.   

info@securedretirements.com
Office phone # 952-460-3260

Time to Transition, but Not Forget

Most people view Memorial Day as the beginning of summer but it is important not to forget the real reason for the holiday – a day of remembrance for those who gave their lives fighting for our country while serving in the Armed Forces.  We must never forget those individuals who gave the ultimate sacrifice fighting for our freedoms.  The gratitude we provide as a nation not only extends to those individuals but also to their families.  Be sure to take time to honor and remember those who have died while serving.  Because of where it falls in the year, the last Monday in May, it does mark the unofficial beginning of summer including the transition to much warmer weather, welcomed by most in our part of the country.  This year investors are hoping it also brings a transition in the markets since this has been a challenging year thus far, with last week giving us some glimmers of hope. 

The stock market finally broke its eight-week losing streak, tallying the strongest one-week performance in 18 months.  Stocks began to rally on Wednesday with the release of the minutes from the most recent Federal Reserve meeting which showed the Fed has stated they are willing to take whatever steps are necessary to fight inflation. This was interpreted to mean they will continue to aggressively raise interest rates and came as welcome news to the markets which have been mired by the prospects of continued elevated levels of inflation, exacerbated over the last few months by higher energy prices.  The markets showed strength throughout the remainder of the week, including on Friday after the release of the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation, the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE), showed inflation remaining elevated but less than the previous month.  This could indicate we are now past “peak” inflation and inflation will slow in coming months, but it will take a few months to determine if this is in fact a trend, or a temporary variation in data. With energy prices stabilizing and housing beginning to show signs of softening, we think inflation will slow over the next few months but will continue to remain above historical averages.  Expect to see further increases in consumer prices, especially since many supply chain issues continue to persist and will take time to fully resolve.       

Sell in May?

The old adage of “Sell in May and Go Away” may not be wise to follow this year. Because the markets have suffered some of their steepest losses in history during the first five months of the year, the path of least resistance could be to the upside.  While technically never closing in bear market territory, the S&P 500 remains well off all-time highs.  During elongated periods of down markets there are often rallies where the markets perform strongly over a short time, but eventually continue to head lower.  The performance of the S&P 500 last week could be the beginning of a full-blown rebound or it might be a short-term market bounce.  With the expectation the Fed will continue to raise interest rates, we are not convinced we have seen the market bottom and some headwinds remain for the market, however, we do not see signals of a more drawn-out downturn since many of the market fundamentals remain solid.  Certain sectors of the economy are showing some cracks, such as housing, but employment remains strong, corporate earnings continue to grow, albeit at a slower pace than the previous two years, and stock valuations are now much more in-line with historical averages.  Any moves lower in the market, while still very much possible, are likely to be relatively muted. 

We remain vigilant when it comes to consumer spending since consumers make up such a large portion of the overall economy.  Spending for discretionary items is slowing as consumers paychecks are not going as far and essential items, such as food and housing, are now making up much larger parts of household budgets than they were a few months ago.  Last week the broadly watched University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey remained positive but showed a weakening from earlier in the month, thus suggesting spending will continue to slow.  Consumer spending is not expected to pick up again until wage growth catches up with inflation, which appears will take some time and may not occur for the better part of a year, given the current trajectories of each. 

Looking Ahead

The month of May will soon be in the books and we will transition into the summer months, which historically are a time of minimal volatility for the markets.  Despite what has been experienced so far, this year will most likely be no different.  However, we would advise against selling in May and completely forgetting about the markets for the next few months.  It may not hurt to keep some cash available should the market fall further and the rally of last week end up being a bit of a “head-fake” but being completely out of the market could be unwise should the rebound continue in earnest, which has the potential to accelerate quickly. 

The employment reports will be released at the end of this coming week and since employment is such an important component of the economy, this will continue to garner special attention over coming months especially as we try to predict whether or not we will enter a recession. But as we’ve said in the past, it can be fruitless to predict the timing of a recession from the stock market perspective since generally any market downturn occurs well in advance of a recession and may have already occurred.   

The purpose of Memorial Day is to take time to remember the members of our military who fought bravely for our country and did not make it home. This is also a good occasion to remember all loved ones who are no longer with us, including the impact they may have had on your life.  Similar to how Memorial Day marks the beginning of summer and (hopefully) a sustained transition from the cold to the warm, we remain optimistic this also marks a transition to more prosperity in the stock market. If this year’s market volatility has caused you concern, please contact us to review your portfolio as well as ensure your income plan remains intact.     

Have a great week!

Nathan Zeller, CFA, CFP®

Chief Investment Strategist
Secured Retirement
nzeller@securedretirements.com

Please contact us if you would like to review your individual financial plan or learn how the TaxSmart™ Retirement Program can help you.   

info@securedretirements.com
Office phone # 952-460-3260

Hitting the Bullseye

As the S&P 500 sits on the edge of bear market territory, being down almost 20% from its peak, investors are wondering if we are near the bottom and it is time to buy or are we going to experience more pain and should they sell.  Some people expect to time the market perfectly, buying at the bottom and selling at the top, and understandably so since this is how you could maximize returns in the market.  However, the reality is that while you might get lucky and sell near the top or buy near the bottom once or twice, it is nearly impossible to time the market perfectly, especially on a consistent basis.  Instead of trying to time the market and hit the bullseye, a better strategy is to accept the fact that the stock market not only moves up but also does move down from time to time and this is just part of the normal cycle.  It is so much more important to have a solid financial plan in place to ensure you remain on target. 

This past week brought some real surprises in the form of earnings reports from major retailers, which did not hit the bullseye nor were anywhere close for that matter.  Earnings reports from the Bullseye itself, Target, as well as Wal-Mart showed that consumer spending has shifted from high-margin discretionary items to lower-margin essential items, namely food.  Revenues were higher than a year ago but earnings were much lower since the cost of goods sold was higher and those costs are not able to be fully passed on to consumers.  These reports and what they represented in terms of consumer behavior sent markets lower with a major sell-off last Wednesday, sending the S&P 500 to its seventh consecutive losing week for the first time since 2001.  It would have been worse had there not been a strong recovery at the end of the day Friday, a day in which we saw the S&P 500 break the bear market threshold of being 20% below the high reached on January 3^rd of this year.  Investor sentiment is moving lower with many bearish indicators flashing caution signals, not to mention momentum seems to be moving in a negative direction.  Often in the past, it is when sentiment was at its worst that the markets reversed and moved higher. 

Target Practice

The best way to get better at something is to gain more experience, or simply practice. The same can be said of the stock market – sensible investors tend to improve with experience and by studying history.  Most investors can remember the bear markets of 2001-2003 and 2008-2009 but they might be surprised to know that since 1980 the S&P 500 has averaged a downturn of 14% per year.  There have been seven bear markets since 1980, with each one averaging about six and a half months in duration. This includes two separate bear markets during both the tech crash of 2001-2003 and again during the financial crisis of 2008-2009.  Between these separate bear markets, the S&P 500 rebounded 21% and 24%, respectively.  With momentum on the downside, it seems the markets are bound to move lower but if you were to sell at this point, it would be at the risk of missing any potential rebound.  Warren Buffet perhaps said it best when asked why he does not try to time the market, to which he replied, “You have to be right twice.”

To find clues about the future direction of the market, sometimes the best place to look is the market itself.  The stock market tends to be somewhat irrational, often for long lengths of time, but eventually seems to come to its senses.  The recent cooling-off of speculative technology stocks and the tech crash of 2000-2001 are examples of this.  But it is the bond market that more often provides guidance, such as a yield curve inversion foretelling a recession. This is why we now have some optimism – bond yields, especially longer duration, have steadied and even fallen a bit recently. This is an indication the bond market may have been ahead of itself or is now expecting a less substantial rise in interest rates.  If the latter were the case, it would be because inflation slows more than is currently expected, which could provide a boost to the stock market. 

The pullback in rates and possibility of lower inflation could be due to the prospect of demand destruction, which occurs when persistent high prices or limited supply result in reduced demand for goods.  The earnings reports of the major retailers last week indicated this with large buildups of inventories.  A reduction in demand is likely to lead to lower prices from retailers who need to sell off inventory, which should help put a damper on inflation.  And thus, while we anticipate the Fed to continue to raise interest rates in efforts to combat inflation, ironically it may not be the Fed that tames inflation, but rather inflation itself. Higher energy prices will continue and supply chain issues persist, but we are now more optimistic that inflation will moderate over coming months, however it will likely remain elevated above long-term averages for the next year or more. 

Looking Ahead

The upcoming week includes more earnings from retailers, including Costco and Macy’s. There will be an abnormally large focus on Costco given what occurred last week.  The major economic release will be Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) which is the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation.  It is expected this number will remains elevated, indicating a continuation of above average inflation, but the comparison to a month ago should not matter much since we are more interested in the trend versus single data points.  Given the composition of how this data is compiled, it should provide a view into the current state of consumers and what they are spending money on.  Taking a deep dive into the data, it is likely to show that inflation remains elevated but may be decelerating with consumers spending more on essential items than on discretionary items, similar to what we heard from retailers last week.  

We continue to remain cautious on the markets but are gaining optimism.  The farther the market drops, the closer we are to the bottom, and it seems the market is like a coiled spring ready to quickly “pop” when released which is why we could see a swift rebound. Headwinds remain, including the prospect of higher interest rates, continued inflation and slowing growth, but none seem insurmountable and it is likely we are entering a new phase in the economy where this becomes the new normal, at least for the next few years.  Once the markets accept that, they are likely to move on and forge ahead.  It will take some time but eventually energy prices will fall, further lessening inflationary pressures.  This will happen as a result of greater supply or new technology, both of which will take some time to come online. 

At this point you need to ask yourself where you see the stock market in 3 years, 5 years or 10 years.  If you think it will be higher then you should remain invested.  If you think it will be lower then you should seek alternatives, knowing that some may also be money-losing propositions in the sense you will experience an erosion in purchasing power with returns that are unable to keep up with inflation.  Markets tend to move up and down, often times dramatically in the short term, but history has shown over the long-term stock prices tend to move higher.  If you have savings you expect to spend in the short term, it should not be invested in the stock market.  Only money you do not plan to spend for a few years should be invested so you have time to ride out volatility. When it comes to investing you do not have to pick every investment perfectly or time the market exactly to find success in reaching your goals; you do not have to hit the bullseye, you just need to have a solid financial plan and ensure you remain on the target.

Have a great week!

Nathan Zeller, CFA, CFP®

Chief Investment Strategist
Secured Retirement
nzeller@securedretirements.com

Please contact us if you would like to review your individual financial plan or learn how the TaxSmart™ Retirement Program can help you.   

info@securedretirements.com
Office phone # 952-460-3260